Broker Morning Highlights: Fed Rate Cut Pace May Slow, Overly Optimistic Expectations Unwarranted

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昨天

Yesterday, the market saw a volatile rally, with the three major indices opening higher and climbing throughout the session. The ChiNext Index surged nearly 3%, hitting a new yearly high, while the Shanghai Composite Index reclaimed the 4,000-point level, and the BSE 50 Index soared over 8%. Total turnover in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.26 trillion yuan, up 108.2 billion yuan from the previous session. Leading gainers included sectors such as Hainan, photovoltaics, and non-ferrous metals, while banking and cinema-related stocks lagged. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index gained 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index jumped 2.93%.

In today's broker morning briefings: 1. **CICC**: The Fed's rate-cut pace may slow, and overly optimistic expectations are unwarranted. CICC noted that while the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in October as expected, Chair Powell's hawkish tone suggested a December cut is not guaranteed. This signals growing support within the Fed for a pause in easing. Looking ahead, though further easing remains possible, the pace of cuts may decelerate, and the stimulus effect of this cycle could be weaker due to diminished refinancing benefits. The Fed also announced it would end quantitative tightening (QT) in December, which CICC views as a technical adjustment rather than a policy shift, given ample room for conventional rate cuts.

2. **Huatai Securities**: $80 billion U.S. nuclear investment leads AI infrastructure push. Huatai highlighted a $550 billion Japan-U.S. financing framework for power infrastructure, with Westinghouse's $80 billion nuclear initiative at the forefront. The firm reiterated AI's role in accelerating U.S. grid expansion, driven by surging data center demand. Supply-side investments cover baseload power, grid equipment, on-site/backup power, storage, and in-wall solutions. Near-term, coal plant retirements may delay in favor of solar-storage and SOFCs, followed by gas turbine builds mid-term and nuclear long-term, benefiting diverse power sector players.

3. **Guojin Securities**: Focus on positive developments in M9 materials. Guojin remains bullish on AI-related materials, citing optimistic industry forecasts at TPCA SHOW and planned capacity expansions by leaders. M9 adoption could upgrade material specs—e.g., HVLP4 copper foil, Q/2nd-gen fabric, hydrocarbon resin—while harder Q-fabric may raise PCB processing costs, boosting drill bit and laser drilling demand. Market attention will center on rollout timing, usage volumes, and pricing upside from tight supply.

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