On Thursday, May 15th, the spot gold and silver markets closed with a clear divergence in performance, with gold prices experiencing slight pressure while silver prices saw a significant decline. According to analysis, rising U.S. Treasury yields combined with a strengthening U.S. dollar partially offset the safe-haven buying support provided by geopolitical tensions. During the session, spot gold traded around $4,650 per ounce, down approximately 0.8%, while silver fell to around $83 per ounce, with a single-day drop exceeding four percentage points.
From a macroeconomic data perspective, April retail sales showed a month-on-month increase of 0.5% to $757.1 billion, with March figures revised upward to a 1.6% growth. Simultaneously, initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9th rose slightly to 211,000, while continuing claims increased to 1.78 million. This data points to a coexistence of resilient consumption and a gradual cooling in the labor market, keeping yields elevated and exerting sustained pressure on non-yielding assets. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain a primary market focus, but risk sentiment has not fully shifted towards defensive positioning.
Analysts suggest that this round of divergence between gold and silver reflects the market's assessment that the "safe-haven premium has been partially released." During periods of rising yields and a stronger dollar, silver, due to its higher industrial component, typically exhibits significantly greater volatility than gold, leading to more pronounced adjustments. Structurally, gold continues to be supported by central bank purchases, ETF net inflows, and geopolitical risks, limiting its downside potential.
Looking ahead, it is anticipated that gold and silver prices may remain influenced by the direction of U.S. Treasury yields in the short term. If geopolitical risks escalate further or the Federal Reserve signals a more dovish stance, gold could potentially challenge previous highs again. Conversely, if real interest rates continue to strengthen, the trading range for both metals may shift higher. Investors are advised to closely monitor developments in the U.S. Dollar Index, 10-year Treasury yields, and the situation in the Middle East while managing their positions effectively.