According to analysis, the Hong Kong property market continues its recovery trend. Data shows that in the first five months of 2026, overall residential transaction volume increased by 44.2% year-on-year, while overall property prices rose by 7.4% over the same period. Compared to the low point in March 2025, property prices have rebounded by a cumulative 13% to date.

The fervent market for new primary developments has significantly accelerated the inventory clearance pace. Analysis indicates that, based on the current sales rate, the time required to clear unsold inventory has sharply decreased from 101.6 months in December 2023 to 44.3 months as of March this year. This figure is even lower than the average of 51.3 months during the bull market period from 2015 to 2021. This suggests that inventory pressure has eased considerably, and developers are no longer constrained by a large backlog of unsold units when launching new projects.

However, potential headwinds remain for the market outlook, including risks related to interest rate hikes, inflationary pressures, and stock market volatility. It was pointed out that the pace of primary market transactions has already shown signs of slowing in May, influenced by recent stock market fluctuations.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the analysis suggests that rising inflationary pressures may dampen homebuyers' purchasing sentiment. It is projected that the annual price increase for small to medium-sized residential properties in Hong Kong will range between 5% and 10%. Furthermore, the majority of these gains are expected to have been realized in the first half. Consequently, Hong Kong property prices are forecast to stabilize in the latter half of the year, with no significant downward pressure anticipated.