On May 11, optimism for a resolution to the Iran conflict faded over the weekend as mutual trust between the U.S. and Iran broke down again at the negotiating table. This led to a surge in crude oil and the U.S. dollar at Monday's open. Compared to last week's weakness, bullish momentum began to stabilize and break through, causing gold prices to gap down and retreat, briefly falling below the 4700 mark. Given the dynamic shifts in the current geopolitical situation, gold prices may return to a downtrend. As previously emphasized, conflict leads to gold declines, while peace drives gold higher. With no peace in sight, a downward trend is expected again. The extent of the decline will depend on the persistence of bearish momentum.

From a technical analysis perspective, the daily chart shows moving averages converging near the middle Bollinger Band, indicating continued short-term consolidation. Although the daily MACD briefly shows a golden cross, the Stochastic Oscillator's fast line is declining, suggesting a potential price pullback. Key short-term support levels to watch are the MA5 and MA10 moving averages around 4660 and 4630, followed by the parabolic SAR near 4525. However, technical support levels will gradually rise over time. Even if prices decline further, it is best not to break below the 4500-4550 zone; otherwise, as previously analyzed, a break below 4500 could trigger an uncontrollable bearish trend. Daily chart highs are consistently declining, so placing short positions below 4750 today is advisable.

On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Band has narrowed to a range of 4760-4650, extending to around 4630. The 4-hour MACD has formed a bearish divergence with high volume, and the Stochastic Oscillator is rapidly declining, indicating a potential pullback from recent highs. Last Friday's 4-hour close formed a small doji star, suggesting short selling may be better positioned below 4705. Current resistance from the MA10, MA5, and the middle Bollinger Band is around 4705-4715. A sustained rebound above 4715 could push prices toward the secondary short-selling zone of 4740-4750.

On the hourly chart, resistance is evident near the middle Bollinger Band around 4705-4710, with prices currently consolidating below this level.

Combining bearish fundamental catalysts with emerging technical weakness, today's primary trading strategy is to focus on shorting at higher levels. The initial short entry can be considered around 4705-4715. If prices rebound and stabilize above 4715, a secondary short position can be established near the previous resistance zone of 4740-4750 from last Friday. The primary target for this bearish move remains the 4650 mark. A break below this level could extend the decline toward the 4600-4630 support zone analyzed over the weekend. A sustained drop below 4600 could see prices testing key lows at 4550 or even 4500.

Today's short-term trading strategy is as follows: 1. Prioritize short positions near the 4705-4715 resistance zone, with a stop loss at 4725 to guard against a rebound toward the secondary shorting zone. The target for this trade is around 4660-4670. 2. If prices fluctuate between 4660 and 4700, a quick long position can be attempted with a stop loss at 4655, targeting the 4695-4700 resistance zone. If prices fail to reach 4695-4700, a quick short position can be taken with a stop loss at 4705, targeting support around 4675-4665. 3. If prices rebound above 4715, consider establishing a secondary short position near 4740-4750 as per the analysis above. The overall strategy for today remains focused on shorting at higher levels, depending on where the rebound provides an opportunity.