Morningstar Maintains HK$45 Fair Value Estimate for LINK REIT (00823), Foresees Hong Kong Retail Rent Recovery from 2027

Stock News
03/17

Morningstar has reaffirmed its fair value estimate of HK$45 for LINK REIT (00823), which carries no economic moat, and has kept its forecasts for the company unchanged. The report indicates that the trust's current distribution per unit is undervalued, with its trading price at an 18% discount to Morningstar's valuation. LINK REIT remains the top pick among Hong Kong-listed property stocks tracked by the firm. Morningstar projects a distribution per unit of HK$2.57 for fiscal year 2026, implying an appealing 7% dividend yield, which is believed to be highly attractive for investors who are not concerned with short-term adjustment pressures. Morningstar noted that LINK REIT reported operational data for the first nine months of fiscal 2026, showing an overall retail portfolio occupancy rate exceeding 95%, while rental reversion for its Hong Kong retail properties stood at -7.5%. This performance aligns with the firm's expectations. Management indicated that the negative rental reversion for Hong Kong retail properties reflects a moderate rental recovery in the previous leasing cycle following the border reopening. Negative rental reversion is likely to persist until fiscal year 2027 (ending March). On a positive note, tenant sales across shopping malls in Hong Kong and mainland China have shown improvement in recent months, primarily due to optimized tenant mix. This is expected to boost tenant confidence and support a gradual rental recovery starting from fiscal year 2028. The international retail portfolio continues to demonstrate resilience, supported by limited retail supply in Singapore and a gradual improvement in Australian consumer confidence. The firm anticipates that LINK REIT's overseas assets will continue to achieve stable rental growth.

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