The overall trend of the Hong Kong stock market remains influenced by U.S. equities, while its resilience is tied to A-shares. Last week saw a bottoming-out rebound pattern. Over the weekend, positive signals emerged as U.S. Senate Republican Leader John Thune indicated progress toward bipartisan agreement on a comprehensive funding bill to avert a government shutdown. The prolonged U.S. government closure had disrupted non-farm payroll data for two consecutive months. Investors await the release of October’s CPI data this Thursday to gauge economic health.
In line with commitments from recent high-level talks, China’s General Administration of Customs announced the resumption of soybean imports from three U.S. firms, including CHS Inc., effective November 10, 2025. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce suspended certain export controls on dual-use items to the U.S., benefiting non-ferrous metals. Separately, the Dutch government confirmed that Nexperia China will soon resume chip supplies, a development expected to bolster China-EU relations.
Domestically, China’s October CPI rose 0.2% year-on-year, reversing September’s 0.3% decline, with a 0.2% month-on-month increase, easing deflation concerns. Broadly, multiple sectors are showing improving trends, setting the stage for a potential market rebound.
In tech, Nvidia’s CEO has requested additional wafers from TSMC, whose CEO C.C. Wei noted persistent capacity tightness and efforts to bridge supply-demand gaps, underscoring sustained sector vitality. China’s carbon neutrality white皮书 revealed non-fossil energy’s share rose from 16.0% in 2020 to 19.8% in 2024, supporting a rebound in solar stocks amid industry consolidation.
A notable event this week is Berkshire Hathaway’s Thanksgiving shareholder letter, where Warren Buffett may address philanthropy, company updates, and market warnings. Earnings reports from Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, JD.com, Bilibili, Li Auto, SMIC, and Lenovo are also due.
**Stock Pick: POP MART (09992)** Overseas adjustments, including optimized LABUBU pre-sales and enhanced supply chain management, are driving data recovery. North America entered a restocking cycle on October 28, with LABUBU products selling out online, signaling strong demand. Domestically, seasonal products and restocking are progressing, with new IP launches like DIMOO and LABUBU driving sales. Analysts highlight POP MART’s global IP leadership and untapped potential in regions like the Middle East and Latin America.
**Industry Watch: Coal & Coke** Thermal coal prices rose 6.1% weekly at Qinhuangdao Port, while Australian coal traded at a discount. Coking coal gained 5.7%, with coke prices up 3.2%. Despite weak steel demand, tight coking coal supply supports coke’s upward trend. Key stocks: KINETIC DEV (01277), CHINA SHENHUA (01088), CHINA COAL (01898), and YANKUANG ENERGY (01171).
**Market Data** HKEX data shows 116,827 open November Hang Seng Index futures contracts, with net positions at 44,202. The index at 26,242 faces support near its moving average amid earnings season volatility. U.S. equities’ high valuations and Fed policy uncertainty weigh on Hang Seng’s outlook.
**AI Bubble Debate** Concerns over AI valuations persist, but mainstream views argue against a full-blown bubble: 1. Tech giants’ fundamentals are robust, with valuations below dot-com levels. 2. Generative AI’s projected $20 trillion economic value outweighs capex. 3. Deep integration (e.g., Nvidia-OpenAI) boosts revenue potential but increases fragility. 4. Rising AI-related debt ($157 billion in 2025) heightens leverage risks. Current corrections appear sentiment-driven, but long-term risks remain.