Prediction Markets Favor Strong September Nonfarm Payrolls: 60% Odds of Over 90,000 Gain, Nearly Even Chance of Six-Figure Increase

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Traders on prediction markets expect Friday's September nonfarm payrolls report could once again come in strong.

After the U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August, a figure that beat expectations, Kalshi traders see a 60% probability that September job gains will exceed 90,000.

Meanwhile, the odds of the September employment report once again delivering a six-figure gain, meaning an increase of 100,000 or more, are close to a coin flip.

That expectation is more optimistic than the 84,000 consensus forecast among economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

Traders on Polymarket likewise put the probability of a six-figure September payrolls gain at roughly 50%.

On these prediction markets, traders are typically asked to judge whether U.S. job growth in a given month will exceed a specific threshold, and the relevant contracts ultimately settle based on official data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Although the labor market had shown signs of weakness earlier in the summer, the August employment report indicated that the job market had rebounded.

That has also given Federal Reserve policymakers more room to shift their attention to their inflation mandate, which remains above target, and to raise rates at their September meeting.

The September employment report is due to be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time.

Ahead of that, the ADP national employment report will be published Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time.

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