UBS issued a research report stating that it maintains a 'Buy' rating on Wynn Macau (01128) and Melco Crown Entertainment (MLCO.US) and lists them as top picks within the industry.

According to its channel checks, Macau's average daily gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first ten days of May, including the Labor Day Golden Week, was approximately MOP 780 million, flat compared to the same period last year, primarily impacted by a low VIP win rate. Assuming a theoretical VIP win rate of 3% to 3.3%, UBS estimates the average daily GGR would have reached MOP 850 million to MOP 900 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 10% to 15%. Specifically, mass market average daily GGR grew 17% to 20% month-over-month, while VIP rolling chip volume increased 18% to 22% month-over-month, but the actual VIP win rate was only 2% to 2.3%.

The bank noted that the market expects the average daily GGR for the remaining 21 days of May to reach approximately MOP 701 million to meet the overall market expectation of around MOP 727 million for May's average daily GGR, implying a 6.3% year-over-year growth. Currently, Macau gaming stocks are valued at about 8.3 times the forecasted 2026 enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple, which is 0.75 standard deviations below the two-year average.