Abstract

Eli Lilly will release its quarterly earnings on February 04, 2026 Pre-Market. This preview compiles consensus expectations, last quarter results, company guidance, segment dynamics, and majority analyst views from January 01, 2026 to January 28, 2026 to frame the key performance drivers and risks for the upcoming report.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, market forecasts imply total revenue of USD 17.93 billion, EBIT of USD 7.70 billion, and adjusted EPS of USD 6.92, with year-over-year estimate growth of 32.17% for revenue, 41.99% for EBIT, and 39.88% for EPS. Gross margin and net margin forecasts are not explicitly available; highlights center on the continued ramp of incretin franchises and oncology stability. The most promising segment is tirzepatide-led metabolic therapies, with revenue momentum underpinned by capacity expansions and broadening indications; year-over-year growth data are not explicitly provided.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Eli Lilly reported revenue of USD 17.60 billion, a gross profit margin of 82.91%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 5.58 billion, a net profit margin of 31.72%, and adjusted EPS of USD 7.02, with year-over-year growth of 53.87% for revenue and 494.92% for EPS. A notable highlight was the quarter-on-quarter change in net income at -1.38%, reflecting heavy investment and production mix effects alongside normalized launch dynamics. Main business revenue composition featured tirzepatide at USD 6.52 billion, Zepbound at USD 3.59 billion, Verzenio at USD 1.47 billion, and other medicines at USD 6.03 billion; year-over-year growth by segment was not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook

Metabolic portfolio and core revenue engines

The primary driver this quarter is Eli Lilly’s metabolic portfolio centered on tirzepatide across diabetes and obesity indications. The company’s revenue cadence in the last quarter showed USD 6.52 billion in tirzepatide sales and USD 3.59 billion for Zepbound, illustrating robust demand elasticity and improving fulfillment as manufacturing expansions came online. For the current quarter, the forecast for USD 17.93 billion in revenue and USD 6.92 in adjusted EPS implies ongoing scale benefits, sustained patient uptake, and better channel inventory normalization. Capacity growth at fill-finish sites and incremental vial-pen supply should contribute to steadier gross margin performance, even as pricing, payer mix, and voucher dynamics may create noise. Watch for commentary on coverage broadening and any temporary bottlenecks, as these are likely to guide near-term revenue recognition and cost absorption.

Most promising business: tirzepatide-led obesity therapy

The highest growth potential resides in obesity therapy under the tirzepatide umbrella, supported by real-world outcomes and continued formulary wins. The prior quarter’s USD 3.59 billion sales for Zepbound indicate substantial uptake in the early growth phase. Management’s focus on manufacturing capacity additions and distribution efficiencies is expected to help meet demand and mitigate backlogs, and that should be reflected in this quarter’s revenue trajectory. Reimbursement breadth and physician adoption trends will be pivotal factors for sustained unit growth. Indication expansion and data readouts over the next several months could reinforce the long-term revenue opportunity, while short-term variability may arise from shipping cadence, parallel inventory adjustments, and payer utilization management.

Key stock price drivers this quarter

The stock’s performance this quarter is likely to hinge on the combination of demand sustainability in incretins, operating leverage, and visibility on supply constraints. If reported gross margin tracks close to the previous quarter’s 82.91%, investors may interpret that as evidence of effective scaling and favorable product mix. Net margin dynamics will depend on selling expense trends and R&D timing related to pipeline programs, so any shift relative to the previous quarter’s 31.72% could indicate changing promotional intensity or cost phasing. Commentary about capacity increases, lead times, and progress on payer contracts will be assessed against the revenue forecast of USD 17.93 billion and EPS forecast of USD 6.92 to judge the balance between volume growth and margin maintenance. Any update to guidance ranges for the year will likely reset expectations for growth rates and profitability paths.

Analyst Opinions

Across collected institutional perspectives, bullish views dominate. The majority stance emphasizes persistent demand for tirzepatide and accelerating supply additions as supportive for quarter-over-quarter revenue consistency and year-over-year expansion, aligning with forecasts for USD 17.93 billion in revenue, USD 7.70 billion in EBIT, and USD 6.92 in adjusted EPS. The constructive consensus expects improved operational throughput to limit stock-outs and stabilize gross margin patterns, while acknowledging the possibility of transient reimbursement and inventory effects. Analysts highlight that strong patient retention and expanding prescriber bases can underpin revenue reliability, with pricing assumptions largely centered on mix resilience rather than aggressive increases. On balance, the prevailing view anticipates a solid print with upside risks if fulfillment conditions improve faster than modeled.