Abstract

Blackstone Group LP will release fourth-quarter results on January 29, 2026 Pre-Market; investors will watch whether fund-raising momentum and performance fees offset softer transaction activity and whether adjusted EPS growth aligns with management’s outlook.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, Blackstone Group LP’s revenue is projected at USD 3.72 billion, down 3.22% year over year, with forecast EBIT at USD 2.34 billion and adjusted EPS at USD 1.53; year-over-year growth implied by the EPS estimate is 4.70%, while EBIT growth is expected to decline by 3.19%. The main business is expected to be led by management and advisory fees, while realized performance revenues are anticipated to be mixed given slower exits, with private credit remaining steadier and real estate realization pacing more cautiously. The most promising segment appears to be management and advisory fees, anchored by continued AUM expansion, with realized performance revenue contributions dependent on market conditions and timing of exits.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Blackstone Group LP reported revenue of USD 3.30 billion, a gross profit margin of 100.00%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 625.00 million, a net profit margin of 21.30%, and adjusted EPS of USD 1.52, with year-over-year growth of 50.49%. A key highlight was robust adjusted EPS that exceeded the estimate by USD 0.29, supported by disciplined expense management and resilient fee-related earnings. Main business highlights included management and advisory fees of USD 2.06 billion, investment income of USD 0.70 billion, incentive fees of USD 0.20 billion, interest and dividends of USD 0.11 billion, and other revenue of USD 0.03 billion, showcasing the diversified revenue base.

Current Quarter Outlook

Management and Advisory Fees

Management and advisory fees remain the core revenue driver for Blackstone Group LP, supported by the breadth of strategies across private equity, real estate, credit, and infrastructure. The latest forecast implies total revenue of USD 3.72 billion, and the company’s fee-related income should benefit from net inflows even as realizations normalize. Despite macro uncertainty and uneven exit markets, fee visibility from long-duration AUM offers a stabilizing ballast to quarterly performance. The industry backdrop suggests fund-raising is recovering in select strategies, and Blackstone Group LP’s scale and brand positioning enhance its ability to capture institutional and retail allocations through perpetual and semi-liquid vehicles. Fee rates and mix will be closely monitored, but the trajectory of assets under management and deployment pace indicate management and advisory fees can offset any moderation in performance revenues.

Most Promising Business: Fee-Based Earnings from Scaled AUM

The most promising business segment is fee-based earnings derived from scaled assets under management, which are less sensitive to the timing of exits and market dislocations. While forecast revenue is expected to decline by 3.22% year over year to USD 3.72 billion, adjusted EPS is projected to rise by 4.70% to USD 1.53, suggesting margin resilience and operating leverage within fee-related earnings. Continued growth in retail-oriented strategies and institutional flagships provides recurring revenue that supports EBIT even as realization activity ebbs. The combination of diversified strategies, global sourcing, and disciplined underwriting across real assets and private credit underpins stable fee accruals, and near-term investor engagement around perpetual vehicles can help maintain momentum. The pipeline of capital formation and deployment should be a key contributor to steady earnings quality this quarter.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Stock performance this quarter is likely to pivot on the balance between realized performance revenues and fee-related earnings, alongside the adjusted EPS trajectory versus consensus. Management’s comments on fundraising pipelines, deployment cadence, and realization timing will shape market perception of revenue durability, given the forecast decline in EBIT and revenue. Any update on credit performance, real estate portfolio stabilization, and potential exits could shift expectations for incentive fee recognition. EPS guidance sensitivity to margin mix and compensation dynamics may also influence valuation, with investors scrutinizing whether fee growth offsets softer realization activity. A clear articulation of capital allocation, including dividends and share repurchases, will contribute to sentiment in the context of recurring fee income and forecast EPS growth.

Analyst Opinions

Institutional views are generally constructive, with a meaningful share of recent ratings tilted positive relative to neutral stances. Evercore ISI maintained a Buy rating with a USD 175.00 price target, reflecting confidence in Blackstone Group LP’s fee resilience and scaled platform to capture ongoing private markets demand. Neutral views from Citi and Barclays, with Hold ratings and targets at USD 170.00 and USD 181.00 respectively, point to a balanced stance on near-term realization headwinds versus long-term fee-based stability. The dominant view leans bullish, emphasizing the company’s diversified revenue streams, strong brand, and ability to generate consistent fee-related earnings despite slower exit markets. Analysts highlight the potential for upside if fundraising exceeds expectations or if realized performance revenues surprise positively, while acknowledging that the forecast decline in revenue and EBIT sets a measured bar for near-term results.