In the nickel futures market, profit-taking catalyzed by the US holiday and loose nickel supply and demand conditions led to a 0.58% decline in overnight LME nickel. The latest LME nickel settlement price was $16,295 per tonne, down $95. On the domestic front, the most-traded Shanghai nickel contract settled at 125,660 yuan per tonne in the night session, a decrease of 780 yuan.

According to the latest data, Shanghai nickel futures opened lower across the board today. The main September 2609 contract opened at 125,710 yuan per tonne, down 730 yuan from the previous close. As of 9:20 AM, the contract was quoted at 126,470 yuan, up 30 yuan, indicating a rebound after the initial low opening.

Macroeconomic Drivers

The global market experienced a sudden shift. The US June non-farm payrolls report came in significantly weaker than expected, rapidly fueling bets for a Federal Reserve rate cut within the year. This pushed the US dollar index to a two-week low, while the US Treasury yield curve continued to steepen. US stock markets showed extreme divergence, with the Dow Jones hitting a new record high, while concerns over AI computing power supply triggered a sell-off in tech stocks, putting heavy pressure on the semiconductor sector. For nickel prices, the rebound during the session was directly catalyzed by the retreat in the dollar index, coupled with a marginal increase in Fed rate cut expectations, providing valuation support for dollar-denominated metal assets. Domestically, expectations for steady growth policies continue to simmer, with downstream restocking demand showing slight improvement. Rapid shifts between bullish and bearish sentiment are driving a phased rebound in nickel prices.

Supply and Demand Across the Industry Chain

On the raw material side, laterite nickel ore supply remains ample overall as Indonesian capacity continues to be released. Sulfide nickel ore resources are limited, leading to relatively tight supply, but weaker downstream demand means the supply-demand mismatch is not prominent.

In the intermediate product segment, high-grade nickel matte capacity is steadily ramping up, and nickel-cobalt hydroxide (MHP) output remains high. However, with demand growth from the new energy battery sector slowing, the pressure of oversupply for intermediates is gradually becoming apparent. The recycled nickel recovery system continues to improve, with recycling volumes steadily increasing, enhancing its substitution effect for primary nickel.

Key Market Focus and Outlook

The market will focus on the release of overseas macroeconomic data, domestic industrial policy developments, and the restocking pace of downstream stainless steel and new energy sectors. In the short term, with weak macroeconomic sentiment and the unchanged loose supply-demand structure, nickel prices are likely to maintain a pattern of weak consolidation followed by a corrective rebound. If there is no significant improvement in subsequent demand, a further test of lower levels cannot be ruled out, warranting caution against short-term price volatility driven by macro news.