Market Analysis: On Wednesday, May 21, a sharp reversal in asset prices, triggered by a sudden shift in geopolitical expectations, unfolded. The crude oil market experienced a nearly 6% plunge, while U.S. Treasury yields retreated from multi-year highs, and the U.S. dollar index faced downward pressure. Gold, a safe-haven asset that had been weighed down by rising yields in recent weeks, staged a robust V-shaped recovery. Spot gold surged 1.38% to $4,543.53 per ounce, decisively moving away from its previous low of $4,453.60, which was a more than seven-week trough.

The sharp rally in gold from the $4,453 low on Wednesday was essentially driven by short-covering and sentiment recovery, fueled by marginal changes in geopolitical expectations. The simultaneous decline in oil prices, the pullback in U.S. Treasury yields, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar combined to pull gold back from the brink. However, the sustainability of this rebound hinges entirely on the actual progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations in the coming days and weeks. If an agreement is ultimately reached and the Strait of Hormuz truly reopens, gold could face dual pressures from rising real interest rates and diminished safe-haven demand. Conversely, if negotiations break down again or Iran presents unacceptable conditions at the last minute, reigniting conflict, oil prices would likely rebound swiftly, Treasury yields would resume their upward trend, and gold could find itself struggling again in a high-interest-rate environment after a brief respite.

Gold Market Trend Analysis: Gold has stabilized at low levels with consecutive positive closes, completely moving away from the previous extremely weak pattern. This rebound has just begun, with ample room for further upside on Thursday and Friday. Technical indicators show clear bullish signals: the daily Bollinger Bands are contracting, and a trend of increasing bullish momentum is gradually emerging. On the four-hour chart, consecutive bullish candles have broken through the middle Bollinger Band and continue to test higher levels. The key short-term resistance level is $4,585. A successful break above this level would open the door for a unilateral upward move, with subsequent targets at $4,650 and $4,765. If the rally encounters resistance and stalls, the price is likely to consolidate within a range. The rapid surge during the early session is not suitable for chasing the rally. The key support level to watch is $4,525. Trading strategies should focus on buying on dips above this support level, patiently waiting for the next unilateral trend to develop.

Silver Market Trend Analysis: Silver has demonstrated strong overall resilience against declines. The previous significant drop did not breach the crucial strong support level at 71, effectively eliminating the risk of a sustained deep decline. The overall trend favors a bullish correction. The previous lows around 73 and 75 presented excellent opportunities for accumulating long positions in batches. The price has now recovered to around 77, and the bullish momentum continues. This upward move is primarily characterized by trading time for space. The short-term target is 79, with a medium-term outlook pointing to 86. Trading strategies should maintain a bullish bias, holding long positions.

Core Trading Summary: Gold: Look for buying opportunities above $4,525, with a key focus on whether the price can break above $4,585. A successful break would signal a move toward higher targets. Silver: The overall strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged. Hold long positions based on support levels and wait for price targets to be reached.