At the beginning of September, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have intensified, leading to a rally in international gold prices that broke through the April highs.

In the early hours of September 6th, non-farm employment data declined again, and spot gold reached $3,600 per ounce for the first time in history, setting another new record high.

Is gold back in favor? What positive factors have emerged recently?

(Source: iFind, as of September 7, 2025, please refer to the latest market data)

**Gold Returns to Upward Trajectory?**

Since reaching new highs on April 22nd, the gold market has experienced some overheating in trading activity.

With tariff conflicts somewhat easing, U.S. fiscal policy pressures, geopolitical factors have created a complex balance between bullish and bearish forces.

Overall, gold prices have fluctuated repeatedly between risk appetite and risk aversion, maintaining volatility in gold prices.

Recently, multiple factors have converged: cooling U.S. non-farm employment data (increasing economic stagflation risks), Fed Chairman Powell's dovish turn (supporting rate cuts), and Trump's continued pressure for rate cuts and even threats to dismiss Fed governors (weakening U.S. dollar asset credibility). These combined factors have pushed the probability of a September Fed rate cut to over 90%.

Strategy teams comment that this round of gold is beginning to break away from its consolidation range and accelerate upward.

A September 6th survey report from Goldman Sachs' market division shows that the bullish camp continues to chase AI-driven tech stock gains, while the bearish camp grows increasingly wary of economic growth slowdown and market concentration risks.

The ratio of investors bullish on gold prices versus those bearish reached nearly 8 to 1. This marks the first time gold has become the most popular long trade in Goldman Sachs surveys, with "unprecedented" enthusiasm that even surpasses developed market equities.

**Core Viewpoints**

**1) Recent Drivers: Rate Cut Expectations & Dollar Credibility**

Recent drivers are primarily the rapid decline in U.S. real interest rates.

With rate cut expectations fermenting, U.S. real interest rates have declined by nearly 20 basis points since August 20th.

Additionally, Trump's interference with Fed independence could impact dollar credibility, supporting gold prices.

**2) Long-term Outlook: Global Monetary Transformation**

Understanding gold pricing requires a historical perspective.

Before 2022, gold's primary pricing factor was U.S. real interest rates.

After 2022, global order restructuring and declining international trust have brought about reconstruction of the global monetary system, becoming the dominant variable in gold pricing.

From a medium to long-term perspective, this will be an important factor influencing gold price changes.

**3) Trump's Actions: Gold Accelerator**

Some of the Trump administration's actions have accelerated this trend.

Disrupting global trade and currency systems, and undermining U.S. establishment institutions all impact dollar credibility, benefiting gold. Close attention should be paid to actions that undermine Fed independence and their effects on the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, gold, and other assets.

Overall, looking at the fourth quarter, the gold market appears bullish in the short term, supported by rate cut expectations + dollar credibility issues + safe-haven demand, as well as central bank accumulation behaviors favoring gold prices.

Medium-term support comes from Fed easing policies and inflation backing.

Long-term benefits stem from weakening dollar credibility and strategic accumulation by global central banks.

**Related ETFs**

**1. Gold ETF (518850.SH)** and its feeder funds (008701/008702):

This Gold ETF is a commodity fund investing in domestic gold markets. The fund's net value fluctuates with domestic gold spot prices, thereby bearing gold price volatility risks.

Gold is a special asset class with financial, monetary, and commodity attributes, with financial attributes having relatively greater influence in price formation. Therefore, when the dollar weakens and market safe-haven demand rises, gold prices often climb.

Long-term, gold also has certain inflation-hedging properties. Commodity long-term returns have low correlation with traditional investment tools like stocks and bonds, serving as an asset allocation tool to effectively optimize portfolio risk-return structures.

**2. Gold Stock ETF (159562.SZ)** and its feeder funds (021074/021075)

Tracks the CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock Index (Index Code: 931238, abbreviated as SSH Gold Stocks). This index selects 50 large-cap listed companies from mainland and Hong Kong markets involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales to reflect overall performance of gold industry listed securities in these markets.

Major holdings include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Gold, Zhaojin Mining, Shandong Gold International, and other A+H share industrial chain gold and copper mining listed companies, while also covering downstream gold jewelry retailers like Lao Pu Gold and Chow Tai Fook.

**3. Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650.SH)**

Tracks the CSI Subdivided Non-ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index (Index Code: 000811, abbreviated as Subdivided Non-ferrous), covering industrial metals (copper, aluminum, lithium, etc.), strategic metals (rare earths, tungsten, cobalt, etc.), and precious metals (gold) listed companies.

For industrial metals, supply constraints, peak season demand, and easing expectations may boost copper and aluminum prices and sector elasticity. For strategic metals, continued tight supply of raw materials may support strong performance in rare earth, tungsten, and cobalt prices, while Cameco uranium mine production shortfalls may push uranium prices higher. Strong downstream demand performance may help lithium carbonate stabilize and recover.