Consumer Prices Show Mild Increase, but Trade Wars Likely to Add to Inflation Despite Reduced Tariffs

Tiger Newspress
05-13

Consumer prices rose again in April after a rare decline in the prior month, leaving inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target as households and businesses grappled with the fallout from the Trump trade wars.

The consumer price index increased 0.2% last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday, matching Wall Street expectations.

In a good sign, the 12-month increase in consumer prices slid to 2.3% from 2.4%. That’s the lowest level in four years.

The more closely followed core rate of inflation also rose 0.2% in April, a tick below forecast. But the yearly increase in Core CPI was unchanged at 2.8%.

The core rate strips out food and energy and is seen as a better predictor of future inflation.

The April CPI report was compiled before most of President Trump’s tariffs on China and the rest of the world were sharply increased. It’s unlikely to sway the Fed to get off the sidelines and change a key U.S. interest rate.

Although the White House has since relaxed most tariffs, economists say Americans can expect to pay more for a variety of goods. Current U.S. tariffs are still the highest in decades.

“The bottom line is that American firms can now prepare for a significant increase in the cost of imports, which will then be passed along to consumers,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist of RSM, in a note.

Big picture: Trade wars are bound to add upward pressure on inflation, but it’s unclear just how much after the Trump administration scaled back most of the tariffs.

Lower tariffs are likely to lower the threat of recession, however, and keep a four-year-old U.S. economic expansion going.

The Fed, for its part, is waiting to see how the tariffs affect the economy before altering a key U.S. interest rate that influences borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.

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