The cryptocurrency market is currently in a delicate phase of contention. According to FXGT, Bitcoin's sustained sideways movement below $68,000 is intensifying the hedging of interests between new and old whales. While long-term holders still sit on substantial profit cushions, large investors who entered the market recently are clearly feeling the chill. The latest on-chain data indicates that the cost basis for short-term whales is significantly higher than the current market price. This asymmetry in cost structures is becoming a primary driver of market volatility in the near term.

During this round of valuation recovery, the holdings of new and old capital are showing a polarized trend. Data reveals that large holders controlling 1,000 to 10,000 BTC possess approximately 4.483 million BTC. Among them, the realized price for short-term whale holders is as high as $88,494, currently facing an unrealized loss of around 22%. In contrast, the average cost basis for long-term whales is only $41,626, maintaining a substantial paper profit of 65%. FXGT suggests that this significant difference in defensive depth implies that as long as Bitcoin stays above the critical structural level of $41,626, market fluctuations are more likely due to the rotation of existing chips rather than systemic panic selling.

Regarding changes in liquidity, FXGT believes that the increased activity of whales on exchanges is a signal worth monitoring closely. Between early and mid-February, the whale inflow ratio on Binance surged from 0.4 to 0.62. This indicates that some large holders have begun moving their chips to trading platforms, increasing potential selling pressure. Furthermore, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for long-term holders briefly fell below 1, showing that some older capital has chosen to realize gains during the high-price volatility. Although the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for long-term holders remains positive, this sign of profit-taking reflects a marginal shift in market sentiment.

Looking ahead, for Bitcoin to establish a definitive cycle bottom, it may still need to undergo a deep emotional cleansing. Historical patterns suggest that a true market bottom often only emerges when the profit expectations of long-term holders are further compressed, or even when the NUPL indicator turns negative, triggering a "structural surrender." FXGT indicates that the current consolidation phase is primarily digesting selling pressure from positions trapped since the 2025 highs. In the absence of significant positive catalysts, investors should closely monitor the support level around long-term holders' cost basis and subsequent changes in the whale inflow ratio, as these factors are crucial for forecasting the long-term equilibrium of the cryptocurrency market in 2026.