**Equity Indices: Global Markets Retreat from Highs Amid Cautious Sentiment** 1. **Index Pullback** Last week, the A-share market retreated from highs, with the Wind All-A Index dropping 5.13%. The CSI 1000 fell 5.8%, CSI 500 declined 5.78%, CSI 300 slid 3.77%, and the SSE 50 dipped 2.72%. Liquidity contracted significantly, with average daily turnover at RMB 1.87 trillion and weekly margin balance reductions of RMB 13.6 billion. Despite strong earnings from tech giants like Nvidia, concerns over AI demand and reduced Fed rate-cut expectations (following robust U.S. September non-farm payrolls) weighed on global equities. A-shares are currently more influenced by external factors, with valuations for major futures indices near 1 standard deviation of their 5-year averages.

2. **Limited Liquidity Growth** The bull market since June relied on ample liquidity, but incremental support has waned. Overseas, the probability of a December Fed rate cut dropped from 90% in late October to 40%, raising stagflation fears amid weak core U.S. data. Domestic liquidity expectations dimmed after central bank media warned against excessive monetary easing. Policy catalysts are scarce post-Plenum, with fiscal stimulus likely delayed to early 2026. Near-term resistance suggests a weak, range-bound market.

**Treasuries: Yield Curve Steepens as Liquidity Eases** 1. **Market Performance** The PBOC’s 10-day net reverse repo injections stabilized liquidity, but weak rate-cut expectations capped gains. As of November 21, 2Y/5Y/10Y/30Y yields stood at 1.43%/1.59%/1.82%/2.16%, with futures (TS/TF/T/TL) little changed.

2. **Policy Actions** This week, the PBOC injected RMB 167.6B (7-day) and RMB 800B (6-month) reverse repos, netting RMB 135.4B. LPRs held at 3.0% (1Y) and 3.5% (5Y), reflecting stable policy rates and thin bank margins.

3. **Supply & Strategy** Weekly net government bond issuance hit RMB 228B (RMB 101.6B central + RMB 126.4B local). With growth targets within reach and muted policy moves, bonds may trade narrowly.

**Macro: Fixed Investment Boosted by Year-End Rush** Construction activity picked up as some regions accelerated projects before winter. Steel demand improved, with rebar inventories falling and hot-rolled stocks stabilizing. Consumption metrics (metro traffic, flights) were steady, but property and auto sales lagged.

October data showed cooling industry, retail, and export growth, underscoring China’s shift toward consumption-led rebalancing. The Plenum emphasized boosting demand, though structural hurdles (income inequality, urban-rural gaps) persist. Q4 GDP growth of ~4.5% would suffice for annual targets.

Weak loan demand prompted PBOC to highlight diversified financing (beyond credit) in its Q3 report, while tweaking policy language to stress cross-cycle adjustments. Incremental stimulus may wait until 2026.

**Precious Metals: Range-Bound Amid Mixed Drivers** 1. **Price Action** Spot gold dipped 0.44% to $4,064.28/oz, silver fell 1.05% to $49.99/oz, with the gold-silver ratio at 81.3. CFTC data showed gold net longs down 20,952 contracts. COMEX gold inventories dropped 19.23 tonnes.

2. **Data & Fed Divergence** Strong September U.S. jobs data (119K vs. 51K expected) contrasted with rising unemployment (4.4%). Fed minutes revealed split views on December cuts, pushing odds to 30%. Geopolitics (Ukraine peace talks) added noise.

3. **Outlook** Gold lacks momentum as Fed uncertainty offsets equity weakness. Investors may wait for clearer signals or accumulate on dips. Silver/platinum/palladium strategies favor mean-reversion trades.