On March 12, against the backdrop of accelerating global financial deleveraging risks, gold's strategic importance is undergoing a profound shift from a "supplementary safe haven" to a "core defensive asset." Analysis suggests that the structural risks accumulated over the long term in the private credit market have reached a critical point. Once the vulnerabilities latent within the shadow banking system spill over, they are expected to inflict lasting and far-reaching negative impacts on the global economy. In the face of potentially prolonged weak growth and credit contraction, hard assets such as gold and physical commodities are not only a "safe harbor" for asset allocation but also the ultimate moat for investors to protect purchasing power during an extended economic downturn.

A lack of transparency and opaque valuation mechanisms are pushing the financial system toward uncharted volatility. Research indicates that the private credit market has ballooned from $4 billion in 2000 to nearly $2 trillion today, yet much of its operational logic remains outside the scope of rigorous regulatory stress tests. This system extends beyond corporate lending, deeply penetrating commercial real estate, auto finance, and various consumer credit sectors. Since many of these assets are priced using internal models rather than market mechanisms, their underlying bad debt risks have long been obscured. Since 2022, global central banks have been purchasing nearly 1,000 tons of gold annually. This strategic repositioning at the sovereign level clearly signals a loss of confidence in credit assets within the global monetary system and an urgent need to return to underlying physical assets.

Looking ahead to 2026, the macroeconomic environment is evolving toward a stagflationary pattern of "low growth and high inflation," which could spell a double blow for high-risk credit assets. The current economic adjustment is not expected to replicate the sudden collapse seen in 2008 but is more likely to unfold as a gradual decline spanning from 2025 to 2027. In this environment of cascading credit default risks, gold—despite offering no fixed interest—stands out due to its lack of default risk, demonstrating exceptional wealth preservation value amid fiscal deficits and debt monetization turmoil. Investors are advised to carefully scrutinize underlying assets and maintain a defensive position centered on gold as credit premiums for complex financial products diminish.