Bank of America Securities Maintains "Buy" Rating on China Life, Forecasts 20-30% Q1 New Business Value Growth

Stock News
03/26

Bank of America Securities has issued a research report adjusting its forecasts for China Life. The report indicates a 5% increase in the 2026 profit estimate but a 1% reduction in the 2027 profit forecast. The firm maintains its H-share target price of HK$33.1 and a "Buy" rating. China Life reported a 44% year-on-year increase in net profit last year. However, the fourth quarter saw a net loss of RMB 13.7 billion, attributed to a significant sequential decline in investment income and relatively low insurance service revenue. The report advises investors to look past the fourth-quarter performance, noting that insurance service revenue is typically weaker in the second and fourth quarters but stronger in the first and third quarters. Last year, new business value grew 36% year-on-year to RMB 45.8 billion, while first-year standard premiums remained largely flat. The new business margin improved from 26.2% in 2024 to 36.2%. Bank of America Securities expects China Life to achieve a 20% to 30% growth in new business value in the first quarter of this year. However, due to the company's aggressive investment strategy, net profit is projected to decline year-on-year. The report emphasizes that short-term fluctuations in investment returns should not impact long-term and normalized return expectations.

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