Gold Market Analysis: Bull-Bear Battle Hinges on Key Breakouts

Market Watcher
07-16

Gold prices remained range-bound on Monday, July 15, lacking decisive momentum amid absent major catalysts. Bulls extended Friday's momentum with repeated assaults on the 3375 resistance level, yet failed to secure a breakthrough. Bears seized the opportunity during the US session to push prices down to 3341, resulting in a daily trading range exceeding $30. Despite limited downward pressure, the persistent failure to breach upper barriers maintained a high-level consolidation pattern.

This week's trajectory centers on two critical dynamics: the sustainability of the bullish momentum and the potential depth of corrections. A successful continuation of the uptrend would necessitate conquering the crucial 3400 threshold. Conversely, aggressive pullbacks could signal a market top formation. Monday's triple rejection at 3375 established this level as formidable resistance, warranting close monitoring during Tuesday's session.

The US CPI data release during Tuesday's American session promises directional clarity. Asian and European sessions are expected to maintain gradual upward oscillations. Technically, the daily chart's upward trajectory remains intact, suggesting at least one more rally before significant corrections emerge. However, vigilance is advised for potential top signals triggered by data releases. Traders should adopt dual strategies: maintaining bullish bias while preparing for bearish opportunities, with all eyes fixed on the 3400 breakout scenario.

Following Monday's retreat, the 4-hour chart shows gold hovering near the Bollinger Band midline without clear directional bias. Asian-European trading may witness rebounds above 3340, with 3355 serving as the decisive pivot: failure to breach this level favors short-term bearish positions, while a successful breakout could catalyze consecutive bullish candles targeting 3375. A direct breakdown below 3340 would shift momentum toward the 3310 support. Intraday strategies should pivot around the 3340-3355 range during Asian-European hours, expanding to the 3310-3375 band during US trading to capture potential trend reversals.

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