On May 29, gold prices experienced a significant decline followed by a sharp rebound. The Asian session opened with a downward trend, and by the midday session, prices had fallen to around $4405, prompting the entry of short positions. Subsequently, prices broke below the $4400 mark, hitting a low of $4365. However, the decline failed to extend further, and short positions were manually closed above $4370, resulting in a modest gain of over $30. Later, during the US session, a strong rally erased all losses and pushed prices above the $4500 level. Gold ultimately closed at $4495, forming a substantial bullish candlestick on the daily chart.
Friday, May 29, witnessed a classic "information war" in the markets—a mistaken report triggered a steep sell-off, which was later reversed following clarifications. Such intense volatility underscores the market's heightened sensitivity to any ambiguous news until the US-Iran negotiations are finalized. While optimism remains regarding a potential agreement, caution persists as reminders surface that a "bad deal" with Iran would be unacceptable. In summary, without a signed deal, all discussions remain speculative.
Should a ceasefire be formally agreed upon today, it would likely diminish safe-haven demand, negatively impacting gold. Conversely, if negotiations collapse, safe-haven flows could return, providing support for gold. Tonight, attention will be on the Chicago PMI data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials. The broader bullish structure for gold remains intact, though high-interest rates continue to cap upside potential. In the short term, a range-trading approach with buying low and selling high is advisable, with breakout-following strategies applied if key levels are breached. For medium-term positions, consider accumulating on deep pullbacks to strong support zones.
Technically, yesterday's gold movements largely stayed within anticipated technical ranges, though the pace appeared disorderly, primarily due to sudden news-driven shifts. Overnight, prices rebounded to above $4500 but have yet to break through the trendline resistance. Consequently, gold may undergo a period of consolidation today, digesting the overnight moves and awaiting further news for directional cues. Key resistance to watch is around $4520; a sustained break above would indicate short-term strength, though continued gains would likely require fresh news catalysts. If today's news flow remains subdued, gold may retreat to test support levels, with focus on the $4460-50 range for consolidation.
In summary, as today marks the weekly and monthly close, the US session may see volatile, whipsaw movements. It is advisable to keep positions at half the normal size or less, maintain strict stop-loss orders, and avoid chasing rallies or sell-offs. Adopt a cautious approach, limiting activity while awaiting clearer signals over the weekend. With the US-Iran deal "still requiring Trump's approval," new developments may emerge.
Today's trading suggestions: Gold: Consider short positions at $4505-4508, with a stop-loss at $4520, targeting $4450-4420. If prices stabilize above $4520, exit shorts and consider long positions targeting $4570-4580.
Key economic data and events to watch on Friday, May 29, 2026: 21:10 Speech by Federal Reserve Governor Bowman 21:15 Federal Reserve's Paulson on economic outlook 21:45 US May Chicago PMI Next day 00:40 Speech by Federal Reserve's Daly