Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on September 9 revealed that both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw moderate rebounds in August. The CPI turned from a 0.1% month-on-month decline in July to a 0.4% increase in August, with the year-on-year growth rate recovering to 0.8%. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 1.0% year-on-year. Similarly, the PPI shifted from a 0.7% decline to a 0.4% increase month-on-month, with the year-on-year expansion widening to 3.8%.

Notably, prices for tablets, computers, and mobile phones increased by 21.5%, 19.6%, and 11.0% year-on-year in August, respectively, with all growth rates widening. What specific components saw the most significant price increases this month? Will prices continue to rise? How are supply and demand currently shaping up in the semiconductor components market, and are there any trend shifts? This article explores these questions through insights from industry professionals and experts.

Looking at the month-on-month figures, prices for mobile phones, tablets, and data storage devices rose by 2.3%, 2.1%, and 2.1%, respectively, collectively contributing approximately 0.03 percentage points to the overall CPI increase. When asked about the drivers behind electronic product price hikes, Chang Junfeng, Secretary-General of the Shenzhen Semiconductor Industry Association, explained via an interview that the primary factor is the sustained price increase in storage components or modules used in tablets, computers, and mobile phones since the second half of 2024.

Guo Yu, Industry Advisor to the Hunan Integrated Circuit Industry Alliance and Deputy Director of the Advanced Computing and AI Application Committee of the Changsha High-Level Talent Promotion Association, noted that the most notable price increases have been in storage chips (including memory and solid-state drives) and discrete graphics cards. This is driven by rising upstream contract prices and capacity being diverted toward AI applications, significantly escalating costs. "The entire chain, including storage chips and PCBs (printed circuit boards), is experiencing price increases, with storage seeing the largest gains," added Wu Quan, Chairman and Chief Expert of Huaxin Jintong Semiconductor Research.

Are component prices still climbing? A server product manager confirmed in a discussion that storage prices continue to rise. Wu Quan noted, however, that the acceleration of price increases has moderated, with growth slowing down. Looking ahead, Chang Junfeng anticipates that while prices are unlikely to surge dramatically, they will remain elevated for a period of six months to a year. The storage market remains tight, and whether it tightens further will depend on factors such as expansion plans by major manufacturers and whether AI-driven demand for storage intensifies.

Guo Yu predicts that terminal prices will continue to rise in the short term, as price hikes from multiple semiconductor manufacturers are set to take effect in September and October. Currently, the semiconductor market exhibits structural shortages: consumer-grade supply is shrinking, wafer foundries are operating at full capacity, and price increases are spreading from storage to more product categories. Wu Quan estimated that this price cycle could persist until late 2027 or early 2028. "From a supply-demand perspective, storage leaders are expanding capacity, but because storage is a commodity with high supplier control over output, supply expansion tends to lag behind demand growth."

Will this scenario attract a flood of new entrants into storage manufacturing? Wu Quan pointed out that the industry has high barriers in technology, capital, and talent, requiring substantial resource mobilization. Moreover, new companies face a lengthy ramp-up period before they can contribute to supply.

The National Bureau of Statistics data shows that the PPI's year-on-year growth widened to 3.8% in August, indicating positive shifts in manufacturing prices. Yang Yiting, Macro Strategy Analyst at Guotai Fund, attributes this to a combination of external inputs and internal transformation. Key factors include: first, the pass-through of rising international commodity prices, with geopolitical tensions driving significant increases in oil prices and high non-ferrous metal prices, exerting imported inflationary pressure on the PPI; second, domestic industrial upgrading, with the AI investment boom and industrial transformation boosting demand in related sectors.

Regarding future trends, Yang Yiting believes the PPI is likely to ease moderately, though the decline may not be smooth. On one hand, energy and non-ferrous metal prices retain strong resilience, and low global crude oil inventories limit downside potential for oil prices. On the other hand, domestic demand-side industries lack pricing power, and price transmission remains obstructed. Combined with a rising base effect, the PPI may begin to gradually decline after the fourth quarter.

Based on available data, Yang Yiting suggests that the economy is expected to maintain a stabilizing and recovering trend in the third quarter, though the recovery may exhibit structural divergence. "The positive factors supporting the rebound are clear," she stated. "First, new growth drivers remain robust—new quality productive forces represented by AI and high-tech manufacturing are growing rapidly, serving as a core pillar of industrial growth. Second, export resilience has exceeded expectations, with the global AI boom driving strong demand in the electronics supply chain and maintaining solid competitiveness for high-tech exports like integrated circuits. Third, consumer prices are recovering moderately, which should improve corporate earnings expectations."

However, Yang Yiting cautioned that structural pressures remain. She noted that major projects, such as plans for "six networks," are expected to provide support for infrastructure investment. "Overall, in the third quarter, the economy is likely to see a marginal improvement over the second quarter, supported by multiple factors. However, the foundation of this recovery still needs consolidation. Key indicators to watch include the conversion of fiscal spending into tangible project progress and improvements in resident income expectations."