JD.com Q2 Earnings Preview: Steady Retail Growth, New Businesses Face Opportunities & Challenges

Earnings Agent
08-05

Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com is set to release its Q2 2025 earnings report before the U.S. market opens on August 14. According to Bloomberg analysts' expectations, JD.com's Q2 revenue is projected to reach 335.076 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit of 5.415 billion yuan and adjusted EPS of 3.89 yuan.

Review of Last Quarter's Performance

Earnings data showed that total revenue in the first quarter reached 301.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%; adjusted EBITDA was 13.7 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year; adjusted earnings per ADS stood at 8.41 yuan.

JD Retail remained the engine of performance growth, with revenue rising 16.3% year-on-year, accelerating further. Its operating profit margin, excluding unallocated items, increased from 4.1% in the same period last year to 4.9%.

Revenue from new businesses, including food delivery, reached 5.753 billion yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year growth of 18.1%, with a loss of 1.327 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 670 million yuan in the same period of 2024. The operating profit margin of new businesses was -23.1%, down from -13.8% in the same period of 2024.

This Quarter's Performance Expectations

Retail Business: Sustained Steady Growth

As the core segment of the group, JD's retail business is expected to maintain steady growth in the second quarter. From Q1 data, JD Retail's revenue rose 12.5% year-on-year to 255.2 billion yuan, with both electrical categories and daily necessities performing well. Entering Q2, the "618 Shopping Festival" became a key driver of performance growth. Driven by trade-in subsidy policies and increased traffic, sales of electronic products and general merchandise are expected to achieve double-digit growth. Multiple institutions predict that JD's Q2 retail revenue will grow by about 15% year-on-year. For example, CLSA released a research report forecasting that JD's Q2 revenue will increase 15.9% year-on-year to 338 billion yuan, mainly benefiting from the strong performance of the "618 Shopping Festival". Haitong International also believes that JD's Q2 revenue will grow 14.6% year-on-year to 333.9 billion yuan, driven by steady demand for electronic products and daily necessities.

In terms of categories, electronic products will maintain a high growth rate under the continuous stimulation of trade-in policies. Consumers' demand for upgrading electronic products, coupled with subsidies provided by JD, is expected to significantly boost sales of this category during the shopping festival. Daily necessities will maintain stable growth due to their nature as daily (rigid daily needs). In addition, as consumers pursue quality lifestyles, categories such as high-end consumer goods and imported products may also see growth opportunities in Q2.

In terms of profits, although promotional activities during the "618" period will put some pressure on profit margins, JD is expected to maintain stable profits in its retail business through measures such as supply chain optimization and cost reduction. In Q1, JD Retail's operating profit reached 11.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, corresponding to an operating profit margin of 4.4%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. It is expected that operating profit will also grow to a certain extent in Q2 driven by revenue growth.

New Business Expansion: Food Delivery Takes Center Stage

JD's expansion in new business areas, especially food delivery, has become a major highlight of Q2 performance. Since entering the food delivery service and launching high subsidies in April 2025, JD's food delivery business has developed rapidly. By March 17, JD Food Delivery had covered 126 cities, with over 300,000 quality dine-in restaurants settled on the platform; on March 24, the platform's daily orders exceeded 1 million. However, high subsidies for the food delivery business have also brought significant cost pressure.

CLSA predicts that JD's instant retail business (mainly including food delivery) will record a loss of about 10 billion yuan in Q2, and the loss may increase to about 13 billion yuan in Q3. Haitong International also pointed out that the food delivery business contributed to a full quarter for the first time, with daily average orders surging from 5 million to 25 million during the period, but the quarterly loss is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan, which will drag down the group's overall profit performance. Although the food delivery business is currently in a loss-making state, it is of great strategic significance to JD in the long run. The food delivery business can enhance user stickiness, expand user groups, and form a synergistic effect with JD's existing retail business. For example, through the food delivery business, JD can deliver its fresh produce, daily necessities and other goods to consumers more quickly, improving the shopping experience.

In addition, JD has also laid out other new business areas. For instance, JD has achieved good results in cross-border trade: in the first half of 2025, sales of European brands on JD's platform reached 46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%. JD has also expanded into the catering business through the "central kitchen + partner" model, with the first store of JD Qixian Kitchen recording over 8,000 orders in a single day. Although the short-term contribution of these new businesses to performance may be limited, they are expected to open up new profit growth drivers for JD in the long run.

JD Health: Expected to Deliver Strong Growth

As a star segment under JD Group, JD Health is expected to show strong performance in Q2. CLSA anticipates that benefiting from the outstanding performance of the 618 Shopping Festival, especially the hot sales of nutritional supplements and medical devices, JD Health's first-half 2025 performance will be very strong, with total revenue growing 23% year-on-year to 34.8 billion yuan, including a 20% year-on-year growth in Q2 and a 26% year-on-year growth in Q1. Goldman Sachs also believes that JD Health continued to lead peers during the 618 promotion, and the increase in user activity of JD Group in Q2 will drive traffic and transaction growth in JD Health's pharmaceutical category.

Summary and Outlook

Overall, JD's Q2 2025 performance is expected to show a pattern of steady growth in retail business, coexisting opportunities and challenges in new business expansion, and strong performance in the JD Health segment. As the foundation, the retail business will continue to provide stable revenue and profits for the group; new businesses such as food delivery, although loss-making in the short term, have huge potential; JD Health is expected to achieve rapid performance growth relying on its advantages in the health sector. However, JD needs to accurately balance business growth and cost control, and rationally allocate capital investment to cope with fierce market competition. In the future, as new businesses gradually mature and market share expands steadily, JD is expected to continue leading the e-commerce industry and achieve sustained and steady performance growth. Investors and the market will also continue to closely monitor JD's specific Q2 performance data and its new moves in business expansion and strategic layout.

This content is generated based on Tiger AI and Bloomberg data, for reference only.

免責聲明:投資有風險,本文並非投資建議,以上內容不應被視為任何金融產品的購買或出售要約、建議或邀請,作者或其他用戶的任何相關討論、評論或帖子也不應被視為此類內容。本文僅供一般參考,不考慮您的個人投資目標、財務狀況或需求。TTM對信息的準確性和完整性不承擔任何責任或保證,投資者應自行研究並在投資前尋求專業建議。

熱議股票

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10