Foreign exchange strategists at Nomura Securities stated that the recent surge in the Japanese yen bears a resemblance to the patterns observed during previous interventions by the Japanese government.

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair fell by as much as 0.8% to 152.93, its weakest level since November 7th, retreating gradually from an intraday high near 155; Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki issued another warning, stating the government is prepared to take "appropriate measures" on the exchange rate in coordination with the United States.

"Today's USD/JPY price action is similar to the moves seen during government interventions in 2022 and 2024," wrote a team of FX strategists led by Yujiro Goto in a report.

They acknowledged that it remains difficult to determine conclusively whether there was actual official intervention or if other factors, such as "rate checks," were at play; however, they pointed out that the latest move "was not a one-off drop in USD/JPY, but saw further, successive declines following the initial sharp fall," mirroring the patterns witnessed during previous intervention episodes.

They indicated that the daily current account balance data to be released by the Bank of Japan on Wednesday will provide more information and may contain clues about whether Japan's Ministry of Finance intervened today and the scale of any such intervention.

They anticipate that the recent flattening distortion in the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield curve is likely to persist; they stated, "While a lower USD/JPY alleviates pressure for the Bank of Japan to normalize policy immediately, as past experience shows, market expectations for the BOJ to take hawkish action may increase following government intervention."

They added that a March interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan still constitutes a "tail-risk scenario," although a hike in April is more probable.

They believe that a decline in USD/JPY is unlikely to pose a strong headwind for Japanese stock prices unless the pair's decline accelerates—however, they also added that the likelihood of this happening is not high.