According to a research note released by China Securities Co., Ltd. (ASX: 601066), ship prices have risen on a month-on-month basis for six consecutive months, full-year tanker orders are expected to remain elevated, and bulk carrier orders may take over as the next main driver of the upcycle, with the current boom continuing.
The liquid cooling sector has entered a new phase of standardized volume ramp-up, and investors should watch for secondary-side orders that keep beating expectations. Storage IPOs continue to advance, order demand remains strong, and overseas expansion is gradually opening up space. In humanoid robotics, attention should be paid to Tesla-chain product launches and mass production progress, seizing opportunities to position in core suppliers. For AIDC power generation equipment, bottlenecks in core components are constraining gas turbine deliveries, and the supply-demand gap persists. Excavator sales at home and abroad rose in tandem in September, and investors should watch for year-end valuation switches and whether overseas demand exceeds expectations.
The main views of China Securities Co., Ltd. are as follows.
Humanoid robotics: Watch Tesla-chain product launches and mass production, seize chances to position in core suppliers
The Tesla chain is actively pushing forward factory audits and mass production, with positive feedback from multiple supply chain sources. Close attention is recommended to the major client's product launches and mass production progress, which could bring important catalysts to the sector. Original equipment manufacturers can directly reach end users and occupy a high-value position in the value chain. Robot companies are actively building capabilities across "brain," "cerebellum," and "body" dimensions, exploring deployment in industrial, commercial, and other scenarios, with shipment volumes continuing to expand; as robot generalization improves, the range of deployment scenarios is expected to widen further. Physical AI is the next wave of artificial intelligence, and robots are one of the best physical carriers of AI, with a clear industry development trend. Catalysts for the robotics sector at home and abroad are expected to keep emerging, and a focus on high-quality segments is recommended.
AIDC power generation equipment: Core component bottlenecks constrain gas turbine deliveries, supply-demand gap persists
On the demand side, gas turbine orders remain robust, with Siemens Energy's gas turbine production schedule already filled through 2032; meanwhile, internal combustion engine capacity for data center-related projects in development in the first half of 2026, including announced, pre-construction, and under-construction phases, has more than doubled to 45 GW. On the supply side, BNEF expects announced capacity expansion plans to lift global gas turbine annual capacity by more than 50% by 2030, with the three major players contributing 28 GW of the 35 GW of new capacity, but upstream segments such as single-crystal blades, forgings, special alloys, and generators continue to constrain deliveries. The brokerage's view: global gas turbine orders remain strong, and the share of gas-fired power generation under construction in the United States and AIDC-related projects is rising in tandem. Domestic gas turbines, with shorter delivery cycles, better cost-effectiveness, and steadily improving product competitiveness, are expected to accelerate their capture of overseas market share. The brokerage remains firmly bullish on domestic gas turbine exports, favoring complete-machine players such as China Shipbuilding Industry Power and Jereh Group, and recommending component makers such as Yingliu and Wanze.
Construction machinery: September excavator sales at home and abroad continue to rise in tandem, sector set for quarter-by-quarter improvement
In September 2026, 22,717 excavators of various types were sold, up 14.4% year-on-year. Domestic sales were 9,911 units, including 218 electric excavators, up 7.16% year-on-year; exports were 12,806 units, including 65 electric excavators, up 20.7% year-on-year. Growth is expected to continue. Exports maintained strong performance, undisturbed by international conditions, tariff changes, or rate hike expectations, and China's construction machinery sector continues to post strong growth. The domestic competitive landscape is improving, with leading companies beginning to raise prices. Companies including Sany, XCMG, LiuGong, and Shantui have announced price increases for excavators, cranes, and other products, reflecting an easing of the industry price war since the start of the year and a shift toward healthier development.
Semiconductor equipment: Global upcycle continues to be confirmed, watch overseas expansion progress
SEMI has updated its forecast, expecting semiconductor equipment to keep growing over the next three years. SEMI expects global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales to hit a record high of $165.9 billion in 2026, up 23.2% year-on-year. The growth momentum is expected to continue through 2028, with total equipment sales projected to reach a record $229.5 billion, marking five consecutive years of growth. TSMC has raised its 2026 capital expenditure. TSMC expects full-year 2026 capital spending of $60 billion to $64 billion, up from a previous estimate of $52 billion to $56 billion, an increase of $8 billion, or about 15%. ASML's overall results comprehensively beat both market and prior company guidance. Quarterly total net sales were 9.326 billion euros, up 21% year-on-year and 6.4% quarter-on-quarter, far exceeding the company's prior guidance of 8.4-9.0 billion euros and the market consensus of 8.85 billion euros. It raised its full-year performance target for the second time this year, with AI computing power and a storage recovery jointly driving industry prosperity and a continued optimization of the profit structure. The global semiconductor equipment components sector is undergoing a historically rare, full-chain wave of price increases. Pricing power in the semiconductor supply chain is structurally shifting from chip end-products to equipment and components. Component companies are smaller in scale with a high proportion of fixed costs, so price increases translate directly into profits; meanwhile, production line expansion cycles run 12-18 months, giving the least supply elasticity. Attention should be paid to domestic substitution demand and the pricing logic arising from extended delivery times at overseas suppliers of valves and piping, ceramic parts, RF power supplies, and GASBOX.
Temperature control equipment: Megawatt-scale liquid cooling deployed, industry enters a new phase of standardized volume ramp-up
First, on the product side, full liquid cooling is moving from chip level to full-rack level, with super nodes becoming a new carrier. Domestic manufacturers have launched the world's first megawatt-scale single-phase cold plate full liquid cooling super node, with per-rack heat dissipation reaching 1 megawatt and per-chip heat removal approaching 5,000 watts, achieving orthogonal full liquid cooling with fully blind mating and physical isolation of water and electricity. Second, on the industry standards side, the first national standard for cold plate liquid cooling in data centers is about to take effect, incorporating cold plates, distribution units, circulation pumps, piping, and quick connectors into a unified framework, requiring interchangeability of same-spec parts, with accompanying general rack specifications and immersion medium standards also being introduced. The industry pain point of incompatible interfaces is being clarified, and the industry is shifting from project-based customization to standardized large-scale delivery. Third, on the delivery side, order visibility is gradually becoming clearer, with a leading company receiving a single overseas customer order for refrigeration equipment equivalent to more than 2.7 billion yuan, with delivery periods compressed to 120 days. Fourth, on the industry trend side, demand is spreading from chips to the full rack-wide chain, with liquid cooling penetration for dedicated chips expected to keep rising and bringing significant incremental volume; domestic substitution is advancing along the core bill of materials from piping and manifolds to quick connectors and cold plates, though constrained by validation cycles, it remains gradual, and the focus of competition is shifting to technology, mass production, and global delivery capability. The brokerage judges that profits in the foundry chain will be realized before the brand chain, that the fourth quarter through the first quarter of 2027 is a watershed for liquid cooling sector performance, and that in 2027 the industry will shift from broad prosperity to divergence in share and profitability.
Top machinery sector picks: China Shipbuilding Industry Power, Dongwei Technology, Jereh Group, China Shipbuilding, Hengli Hydraulic, Orbbec, Sany Heavy Industry, Haomai Technology, Aike Optoelectronics, AMEC, Wuxi Lead Intelligent, Bozhon Precision, XCMG Machinery, CIMC Group, Centre Testing International, and Maxwell.
Risk analysis: risks from domestic macroeconomic fluctuations, overseas market volatility, and downstream capacity expansion falling short of expectations.