D-Wave Quantum Inc. is scheduled to release its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings before the U.S. market opens on Tuesday, May 12. While Wall Street generally holds a positive long-term outlook for quantum computing, quantitative models are emitting strong "sell" signals. The market is closely watching whether its record order backlog can translate into actual revenue.

Expected Data and Institutional Views Market consensus anticipates a significant sequential decline in the company's Q1 revenue, with expectations ranging between $4.19 million and $5 million, a sharp drop from the $15 million reported in the same period last year. This notable difference stems from the year-ago period's revenue including the first major system sale to a high-performance computing center. Such system sales typically require multi-quarter installation cycles before revenue can be recognized. The loss per share is expected to widen to between $0.08 and $0.10, compared to a loss of $0.02 in the prior-year period.

Despite the weak earnings expectations, 14 out of 16 Wall Street analysts maintain a "buy" rating, with an average price target of approximately $36.91, implying an upside potential of 63.5%. Bulls are primarily betting on the explosive growth of its commercial orders. Management revealed during the Q4 earnings call that new orders added in January 2026 alone surpassed the total for the entire year of 2025. These include a 10-year, $20 million system sales agreement with Florida Atlantic University and a two-year, $10 million services agreement signed with a Fortune 100 company.

Notably, short sellers and quantitative signals are issuing clear warnings. Data shows the stock declined 44.9% during the first quarter of 2026. The earnings conference call is scheduled for 8:00 AM on Tuesday, and the market will pay close attention to management's commentary regarding supply chain stability, product progress, and the path toward narrowing losses.