China's PMI Returns to Expansion Territory After Two Consecutive Months of Recovery

Deep News
09/30

On September 30, the National Bureau of Statistics' Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China's Purchasing Managers' Index. The data shows that in September, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index stood at 50.1%, 50.2%, and 50.7% respectively, rising 0.3, 1.2, and 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in economic prosperity.

Manufacturing PMI Rebounds for Two Consecutive Months

In September, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, returning to expansion territory. Among the 21 surveyed industries, 12 industries had a PMI above the critical point, an increase of 4 from the previous month, indicating an expansion in the scope of manufacturing prosperity. Both production and demand maintained expansion. Specifically, the manufacturing production index was 51.7%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the new orders index was 50.5%, slightly down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Both indices remained above the critical point, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing production and market demand. Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, commented that to meet production demand, enterprises further accelerated raw material procurement, with the procurement volume index at 51.0%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month.

Price Indices Continue to Rise

Huo Lihui stated that influenced by factors such as recent increases in international commodity prices and rising demand in some industries, both the main raw material purchase price index and the ex-factory price index rebounded for two consecutive months, indicating a significant overall increase in manufacturing market prices. The manufacturing main raw material purchase price index and ex-factory price index were 60.8% and 54.0% respectively, up 4.2 and 3.6 percentage points from the previous month. By industry, with the sharp rise in international crude oil prices, both price indices for petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing, chemical raw materials, and chemical products rose to above 60.0%.

Three Key Industries Expand Rapidly

The PMI for equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods industries were 51.0%, 52.5%, and 50.7% respectively, all above the critical point, indicating relatively active production and operations for related enterprises. The PMI for high energy-consuming industries was 48.0%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, showing some improvement in prosperity.

Improvement in Prosperity for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

The PMI for large manufacturing enterprises was 50.6%, unchanged from the previous month, maintaining expansion. The PMI for medium and small enterprises were 49.7% and 48.9% respectively, up 0.3 and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in prosperity.

Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index Rebounds Significantly

Data shows that in September, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, returning to expansion territory, with a significant improvement in non-manufacturing prosperity. Among this, the service industry business activity index rose back into expansion territory. In September, the service industry business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising above the critical point, indicating a recovery in service industry market activity. By industry, the business activity indices for telecommunications, radio and television, and satellite transmission services, monetary financial services, and insurance were all above 55.0%, in a relatively high prosperity range, with related enterprises continuing to see rapid growth in total business volume; the business activity indices for capital market services and real estate remained at low levels. The service industry business activity expectation index was 55.5%, indicating continued positive expectations for service industry development.

Construction Industry Business Activity Index Rises to Yearly High

The construction industry business activity index was 50.3%, up 3.4 percentage points from the previous month, returning to expansion territory, with construction progress accelerating. The construction industry business activity expectation index was 55.4%, indicating increased confidence among construction enterprises in future market development.

Composite PMI Output Index Above the Critical Point

In September, the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, rising above the critical point, indicating overall expansion in China's enterprise production and operations compared to the previous month. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the composite PMI output index, were 51.7% and 50.2% respectively.

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