Analysts at Bernstein stated that Bitcoin appears to have bottomed out, noting that Strategy's stock price could potentially rise by 226% from Monday's closing price of $138.20. They maintained an "Outperform" rating on the stock with a $450 price target, highlighting the company's resilience during Bitcoin's approximately 50% decline from its October 2025 peak.

Strategy's share price has increased by 10.9% over the past month, though it remains down 57.3% over the last six months.

Analysts believe Strategy's shift to a perpetual preferred stock instrument has reduced its investment thesis's dependence on short-term Bitcoin price movements. The company launched the STRC preferred share in July 2025, positioning it as a digital credit alternative to money market instruments, currently offering an 11.5% monthly cash dividend yield.

Analysts reported that STRC's monthly trading volume has grown 65% over the past three months, with a 30-day average daily volume reaching $220 million, making it the most liquid preferred stock product in the market. The instrument trades on retail platforms such as Robinhood and SoFi Invest. They noted that institutional investors including FMR, BlackRock, Capital Group, and VanEck hold approximately 23% of the outstanding STRC supply.

Bernstein emphasized that Strategy has raised $21 billion through STRC year-to-date, including $12 billion during the week of March 9-15 alone. The company utilized $22 billion of these funds to acquire approximately 29,400 Bitcoin through market-priced offerings linked to STRC.

Analysts indicated that within Strategy's total $18 billion of outstanding debt and preferred shares, the preferred stock instrument now accounts for $10 billion, with convertible bonds beginning to mature in 2028. Strategy's cumulative annual financing cost stands at $1.1 billion, comprising $35 million in interest expenses and $1.05 billion in preferred share dividend obligations.

The balance sheet remains over-collateralized. According to Bernstein, Strategy's balance sheet holds $56 billion in Bitcoin and cash against total debt of $18 billion. The company's cash reserves alone are sufficient to cover 25 years of annual dividend and interest costs, while its $54 billion Bitcoin holdings could cover approximately 50 years of annual financing obligations.

Bernstein stated that Strategy's leverage represents 20% to 30% of its Bitcoin net asset value, a range it considers conservative. Historically, the company has traded at a premium to its Bitcoin net asset value, with its $64 billion enterprise value representing a 16% premium to its Bitcoin holdings. By comparison, Strategy's average premium has been 57% since adopting its Bitcoin treasury strategy in August 2020.

Bernstein's bullish outlook for Strategy is supported by its view that Bitcoin has found a bottom. The firm noted that Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $2.2 billion in inflows over the past four weeks, reversing the year-to-date outflow trend. Net outflows have narrowed to $364 million against an asset base of $90 billion. ETFs currently hold 6.1% of the total Bitcoin supply.