With the 2026 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday separated by only three working days, many travelers are combining annual leave to create an extended break, resulting in a dual-peak pattern for civil aviation demand. Some popular return routes have seen ticket prices climb sharply, with fares jumping from just over 600 yuan to as high as 2,550 yuan.

According to flight data, as of September 17, the average booked price for domestic economy class tickets during the Mid-Autumn and National Day period stands at approximately 973.7 yuan, marking a 9% year-on-year increase. Passenger traffic is projected to rise 3.1% year-on-year on a daily average basis. Many leisure and homecoming routes are exhibiting a pricing curve characterized by a rapid pre-holiday surge, a mid-holiday softening, and a renewed spike during the return window. Long-haul routes are showing significantly greater price volatility compared to medium- and short-distance routes.

Where the travel peaks land

Travel data indicates two major travel peaks: the first day of the Mid-Autumn Festival on September 25 and the first day of National Day on October 1. The period from September 23 to October 1 represents the high-fare window for outbound travel. After October 3, as outbound demand is largely satisfied, fares on several popular routes drop considerably. However, the return window from October 6 to 7 sees prices strengthen once again, with a pronounced premium on return tickets.

Some popular routes are showing particularly pronounced boom-and-bust swings. For example, on the busy long-haul route from Shanghai to Urumqi, the lowest fare on September 21 was 670 yuan but had climbed to 1,540 yuan by September 24, the day before the Mid-Autumn Festival, representing an increase of roughly 130%. By October 7, the lowest price for the return flight from Urumqi to Shanghai has reached 3,070 yuan, nearly double the outbound fare and up almost 99% from the pre-festival departure price.

Similarly, on September 24, a Beijing-to-Urumqi flight was priced at 850 yuan. On the day of the Mid-Autumn Festival itself, the fare climbed to 1,600 yuan, nearly doubling, while on National Day the ticket was 1,050 yuan. By October 3 and 4, however, fares had dropped to 450 yuan. The return direction tells a different story: Urumqi-to-Beijing tickets held steady in the 600 to 700 yuan range from the Mid-Autumn Festival through the early National Day period, but prices exceeded 1,000 yuan after October 3, and by October 6, the ticket price had soared to 2,550 yuan.

Travelers front-run the crowds

Given the steep prices during the holiday period, a number of travelers are choosing to travel ahead of the rush. Booking platform data shows that on September 22, the number of people starting their dual-festival holiday early had doubled. Meanwhile, the number of travelers requesting leave from September 28 to 30 has surged 52% year-on-year.

Looking at the broader industry picture, air travel demand for the double holiday is clearly expanding this year. Aviation forecasts indicate that between September 25 and October 7, airlines will operate 219,000 passenger flights, or more than 16,800 per day, up 2% year-on-year. Passenger volume is expected to reach 31.02 million, a daily average increase of 3.1%. Domestic (including regional) flight volume is predicted to rise 2%, while international flights are expected to grow 2.3%. Domestic passenger traffic is seen rising 3.1%, with international passenger numbers up 2.9%.

Overall, growth in long-haul domestic demand is especially notable this year. As of September 14, round-trip ticket bookings on domestic routes for the September 25 to October 7 period have surpassed 8.58 million, up more than 10% year-on-year. Among those, bookings for routes longer than 2,000 kilometers exceed 1.74 million, a roughly 14% increase.

What travelers should keep in mind

Industry insiders caution that the price drop after October 3 is concentrated mainly on outbound routes and should not be misread as a holiday-wide discount. Most popular destinations see return traffic concentrated on October 6 and 7, when cabin availability is tight, and last-minute discounts are unlikely to materialize as the holiday approaches.

Travelers with flexibility in their schedules are advised to arrive at their destinations on October 4 or 5 to avoid the peak, and to steer clear of the final two days when booking return flights, allowing them to reduce overall travel costs.