Nickel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange trended lower in the afternoon session today. The main September 2026 nickel contract opened at 128,000 yuan per tonne, reaching an intraday high of 128,280 yuan and a low of 124,380 yuan before closing at 127,140 yuan. This represents a decline of 1,980 yuan, or 1.53%. Trading volume for the main September contract reached 308,188 lots.
Statistics from the Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network show that on June 30, the comprehensive price for 1# nickel stood between 124,450 yuan and 126,850 yuan per tonne, with an average of 125,650 yuan. This marks a drop of 3,700 yuan from the previous day. Spot prices for 1# nickel in the Changjiang market ranged from 124,600 yuan to 126,800 yuan, averaging 125,700 yuan, a decrease of 3,800 yuan. In Guangdong, spot nickel was quoted between 126,900 yuan and 127,300 yuan, with an average price of 127,100 yuan, down 3,350 yuan.
Key Macroeconomic Influences
On June 30, global macroeconomic forces intensified their tug-of-war. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain volatile, with uncertainties surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations and unresolved risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. PCE inflation for May exceeded expectations, prompting a rebound and raising the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to 63.1%. The U.S. dollar index climbed to a 13-month high, stabilizing near the 101.2 level. Overnight, U.S. technology stocks staged a strong rebound, with the Nasdaq surging 2.07%, but economic sentiment across the Eurozone weakened broadly. The combination of a strong dollar and expectations of sluggish overseas demand continues to weigh on the valuation of industrial metals, with nickel prices maintaining a weak and oscillating pattern throughout the day.
Structural Divergence in Raw Materials: Broad Ease Amid Local Tightness
The current nickel raw materials market exhibits a pronounced structural split. While the overall supply of laterite nickel ore is ample, tighter export quotas for high-grade ore from Indonesia provide localized support. However, increased supply of low-grade ore from the Philippines is filling the gap. The supply of sulfide nickel ore remains constrained in the long term due to the depletion of high-quality, shallow global resources and the lengthy commissioning cycles for new mines, with no significant change to this tight supply outlook. In the intermediate product segment, the conversion process to produce high-grade nickel matte via hydrometallurgy is lagging, keeping spot market availability persistently low. Nickel-cobalt hydroxide production is being squeezed by high sulfur prices impacting smelter profits, leading to concentrated maintenance shutdowns at small and medium-sized hydrometallurgical plants, tightening short-term supply. Recycled nickel supply remains generally stable, with its share of primary nickel supply steadily increasing, effectively supplementing market availability.
Supply-Demand Mismatch in the Value Chain, Cautious Spot Trading
Across the industry chain, cost support persists at the upstream mining stage but its transmission downstream is weak. Profitability among mid-stream smelting enterprises varies significantly. Downstream, the stainless steel sector has entered its traditional consumption off-season, with production schedules declining month-on-month. Demand from the new-energy battery sector is showing marginal improvement, but the pace of incremental demand release is slow, insufficient to provide effective momentum. In the spot market, against the backdrop of weak and falling nickel prices, short-sellers have actively entered the market to apply pressure, leading to a concentrated release of bearish sentiment. Downstream enterprises are predominantly in a wait-and-see mode, with most procurement limited to small, essential orders placed when prices dip. Traders are offering discounts to facilitate transactions. Overall trading activity is subdued, with the market's transaction focus moving lower in tandem with the futures market.
End-of-Month Macro Outlook and Short-Term Nickel Price Forecast
Internationally, market participants are closely watching for signals from the Federal Reserve at the Sintra Forum and the revision of Indonesia's nickel ore quotas in July. A reinforcement of hawkish signals is expected to continue suppressing metal valuations. Domestically, the focus is on the implementation pace of pro-growth policies in the second half of the year and the strength of the manufacturing recovery. In the near term, nickel prices are likely to remain dominated by macro sentiment, continuing their search for a bottom under pressure from quarter-end fund flows. Support near industry cost levels will be watched on the downside. A more sustained recovery in the medium term will depend on a substantive rebound in downstream demand.