US Treasury Yields Climb as Fed's Waller Signals More Hikes Needed, Investors Await 30-Year Bond Auction

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US Treasury yields rose on Thursday as investors braced for a closely watched long-dated bond auction. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed 4 basis points to 5.322%, after touching a fresh high not seen since 2002 on Wednesday and then pulling back. The 30-year Treasury yield advanced more than 4 basis points to 5.705%, following a prior session in which it briefly approached a 24-year peak. The 2-year Treasury yield gained nearly 3 basis points to 4.793%. Note: one basis point equals 0.01%, and bond yields move inversely to prices.

Market Snapshot: 10-year Treasury at 5.343%, up 0.066%; 1-month at 3.955%, up 0.013%; 1-year at 4.444%, up 0.032%; 2-year at 4.816%, up 0.052%; 30-year at 5.722%, up 0.061%; 3-month at 4.164%, up 0.023%; 6-month at 4.313%, up 0.026%.

The Fed's latest meeting minutes released Wednesday showed officials expect another rate hike before year-end to contain inflation. Market investors anticipate the Fed will hold rates steady at its next meeting on October 28 and begin hiking on December 9. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday that inflation has run above the central bank's 2% target for roughly five and a half years, and further rate increases are needed to bring it down, though they need not happen immediately. Speaking at a Turkish central bank forum in Istanbul, Waller said: "The hikes do not have to be delivered at consecutive meetings, but they should be completed within a reasonable time frame."

Long-dated bond auction approaches. Investors are awaiting the third US Treasury auction of the week, set to take place after midday Thursday. On Wednesday, the Treasury Department issued $39 billion in 10-year notes, with global central banks taking more than 80%, above the historical average of 72.4%. The Treasury already issued $58 billion in 3-year notes on Tuesday and plans to sell $22 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday. Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets said in a Wednesday evening research note: "At least for now, the 10-year auction has set the tone for the Treasury market." "Although the selloff between the September refunding and this auction was substantial, which typically prompts bidders to hold back, the strong participation gave the market confidence, even though this was the highest-yielding 10-year auction since November 2000." Lyngen added that, with broad global concerns about fiscal deficits, Thursday's long-dated auction will be the next gauge of the strength of demand for US debt.

In addition, investors will be watching Thursday's weekly US initial jobless claims and Friday's preliminary October University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading.

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