Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that the share price of AIA (01299) has surged 62% since last year. Its current valuation stands at 1.4 times the estimated embedded value for the next year, a new high since 2023, yet it remains below the 2013-2023 average of 1.7 times. The firm raised its target price for AIA from HK$85 to HK$96, equivalent to 1.4 times the projected embedded value for 2027, and reaffirmed its "Buy" rating. The report indicated that AIA's valuation has consistently been supported by stable compound growth in new business value, embedded value, and post-tax operating profit. Goldman Sachs reassessed AIA's key growth metrics, noting that while premium income growth has slowed, embedded value growth has recovered and is on an upward trajectory. Between 2011 and 2019, new business value grew at an average annual rate of 24%, compared to the firm's estimated average growth of about 15% for the company from 2023 to 2028. However, the return on embedded value is projected to reach 15% in 2025, matching the peak growth momentum seen in fiscal years 2018-19, with expectations for this upward trend to continue. Furthermore, the company's share buybacks are funded by free surplus, and its return on equity is significantly higher than historical levels, projected to reach 17% between 2023 and 2028. The firm believes AIA's compound growth story remains intact. Although investors have expressed concerns about the rising proportion of savings-type products in the mainland and Hong Kong markets, Goldman Sachs believes this is already reflected in the valuation. The current risk-reward profile of the valuation is attractive. The firm raised its forecast for AIA's new business value for 2025-2027 by 3% to 4% and increased its 2025 net profit forecast by 5%, primarily reflecting the performance of equity investments in the mainland and Thai markets.