UBS has released a research report on Tesla Motors (TSLA.US), projecting 345,000 vehicle deliveries for the first quarter of 2026. This represents a 2% increase year-over-year but an 18% decrease compared to the previous quarter. The figure is lower than the bank's initial Q1 2026 forecast of 360,000 units and is 7% below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 371,000 units. The bank notes that this projection aligns more closely with the buy-side institution expectation range of 330,000 to 350,000 vehicles. While actual delivery numbers might be slightly below this forecast, a last-minute surge in deliveries at the quarter's end remains a possibility. The bank also predicts energy storage deployments of 15.1 gigawatt-hours for the quarter, a 45% year-over-year increase and a 6% sequential rise. Tesla is scheduled to announce its Q1 2026 delivery results on April 2nd.

The impact of delivery figures on the company's stock price may have diminished significantly. Investor focus on Tesla's traditional automotive business and its fundamentals has decreased considerably. According to the bank, the stock price is now primarily driven by the narrative and future potential of its artificial intelligence initiatives, such as the autonomous taxi service and the Optimus humanoid robot. Market attention on Tesla's energy and solar businesses has also increased recently. Consequently, progress and updates on these new ventures are more critical for the stock's performance.

Recent investor feedback indicates that updates on the autonomous taxi and Optimus projects are progressing slower than expected, and related disclosures have been relatively subdued. Following Nvidia's release of its autonomous driving platform and accelerated deployments by companies like Waymo, the market increasingly believes Tesla may struggle to establish a sustainable, differentiated competitive advantage in the robotaxi sector. Although market sentiment remains the core driver of the stock price—far outweighing the influence of car deliveries—Tesla's cash flow is still predominantly supported by its traditional automotive business. This cash flow is essential for funding the company's growth investments, with capital expenditures projected to reach $200 billion this year.

The adjustment to the Q1 2026 delivery forecast is based on several factors: weakening demand for pure electric vehicles in the U.S. market and the gradual phase-out of Model S and Model X production. However, the bank expects deliveries of these two models to continue for several more quarters. According to automotive data firm estimates, Tesla's deliveries for January-February were 78,600 units, down 6% compared to the first two months of Q1 2025 and down 2% from the first two months of Q4 2025. Currently, Tesla is offering a 72-month 0% financing option for the Model Y, a 30-day trial of its supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) capability for all new vehicles, and until March 31st, the ability for owners to transfer existing FSD capabilities to a new Tesla vehicle. Additionally, a new lease program for the updated Model 3 is available for $399 per month with a $3,000 down payment.

In Europe, deliveries in the first two months of the quarter across the top eight markets declined approximately 4% year-over-year, but the bank believes overall demand is roughly stable, with potential strength in other European countries. For the quarter to date, deliveries in Germany increased 32% year-over-year, and France saw a 24% increase, while the UK experienced a sharp 41% decline and the Netherlands a significant 56% drop. Furthermore, the delivery base from Q1 2025 was already low in Europe, and deliveries there are typically concentrated in the third month of the quarter. Delivery performance in key European countries for the first two months is as follows: Germany: +32% YoY, +42% QoQ; France: +24% YoY, +30% QoQ; UK: -41% YoY, -27% QoQ; Netherlands: -56% YoY, -63% QoQ; Belgium: -8% YoY, +36% QoQ; Spain: +73% YoY, +5% QoQ; Italy: +20% YoY, -2% QoQ; Norway: -19% YoY, -81% QoQ.

In China, influenced by the timing of the Lunar New Year and a low base from the same period in 2025, Tesla's wholesale volume for the first two months of the quarter increased 36% year-over-year but decreased 14% sequentially. Wholesale figures, which include exports, better reflect production-side activity. Exports for the quarter to date surged 112% year-over-year and increased 45% sequentially, providing support for the bank's delivery forecasts in other regions. However, retail deliveries within China, excluding exports, fell 6% year-over-year and plummeted 42% sequentially for the first two months. Tesla has extended the validity of its ultra-low 7-year interest rate and 5-year interest-free financing plans until March 31, 2026. The bank anticipates that Tesla will achieve delivery growth in regions outside of the three core markets: the U.S., Europe, and China.