Three sources familiar with the matter revealed that OPEC+ is highly likely to approve a new round of crude oil production increases at next Sunday's meeting, with an increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day. With oil prices continuing to rise, the organization intends to further reclaim market share.

Since April this year, OPEC+ has abandoned its production cut strategy, having already cumulatively increased production quotas by more than 2.5 million barrels per day (approximately 2.4% of global demand). This move aims both to boost market share and respond to pressure from U.S. President Trump to lower oil prices.

Eight OPEC+ member countries will hold an online meeting on October 5 to determine production plans for November. OPEC+ produces approximately half of the world's crude oil and includes members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as well as non-OPEC allies such as Russia.

Currently, OPEC headquarters and relevant Saudi Arabian departments have not provided immediate responses to requests for comment.

How have oil prices moved recently?

At the beginning of this year, oil prices once broke through $80 per barrel, but since OPEC began increasing production in April, oil prices have mostly fluctuated within a narrow range of $60-70 per barrel.

On Friday (September 27), affected by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, Russia, one of the world's major oil exporters, saw its refining capacity and export transportation disrupted, pushing oil prices to their highest point since August 1, breaking through $70 per barrel.

OPEC+'s production cuts reached a peak of 5.85 million barrels per day, consisting of three components: 2.2 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts, 1.65 million barrels per day in cuts by eight member countries combined, and 2 million barrels per day in cuts implemented jointly by all members.

Plans to discuss further production increases

The eight member countries plan to completely eliminate one of their previous production cut measures by the end of September - namely the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut. Starting in October, they have begun the process of eliminating the second production cut measure (involving 1.65 million barrels per day), first increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day that month.

Additionally, OPEC+ has approved the UAE's production increase of 300,000 barrels per day from April to September.

Three sources indicated that the November production increase to be discussed at the October 5 meeting will reach at least 137,000 barrels per day, matching October's increase. However, they emphasized that the final resolution has not yet been finalized.

Analysts point out that since most OPEC+ member countries are already operating at full capacity, the organization's actual production increases have not reached the promised scale.

The third production cut measure (2 million barrels per day) jointly implemented by all OPEC+ members is scheduled to continue until the end of 2026.