「Gold is the only asset you can hold that doesn’t require someone else to pay you.」 When Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, asserted this with conviction, the entire investment community took notice. This statement transcends a mere market prediction; it reflects a profound rethinking of the foundations of the modern financial system. As gold prices reach new highs and market sentiment grows increasingly euphoric, Dalio has not succumbed to "fear of heights." Instead, he has raised his strategic allocation recommendation to an unprecedented level—15%. This figure is not merely a number; it serves as a signal. It indicates that in a context of soaring global debt, geopolitical turmoil, and eroded trust in fiat currencies, gold is poised to transition from a traditional 「safe-haven role」 to becoming a 「core protagonist」 in asset allocation. I. Paradigm Shift: Gold as Currency, Dollar as 「Debt」 To grasp Dalio's logic, one must first undergo a mental paradigm shift. We tend to think of paper currency as 「money」 and gold as a precious metal or commodity. However, Dalio points out that this notion is fundamentally misguided. Gold is the most basic form of currency; fiat currency (like the dollar) is essentially a debt. He unveils a historical 「debt-gold-currency」 cycle: - Accumulation of Debt: Governments stimulate the economy by issuing national debt (bonds). - Currency Over-Issuance: When the debt burden becomes unsustainable, central banks are compelled to print more fiat currency to repay the debt. - Credit Devaluation: A surge in money supply leads to a decrease in purchasing power, diluting the intrinsic value of currency. Within this chain, the value of fiat currency is wholly reliant on the credit promises of the issuing government. Gold, however, does not depend on any external promise. It cannot be created out of thin air; its value is forged by thousands of years of history, culture, and global consensus. Dalio's conclusion is striking: the value of debt currencies relative to gold is declining—an increasingly evident trend.

II. Historical Replacement: Is Gold Replacing U.S. Treasuries? If the foregoing assertions serve as a theoretical foundation, then Dalio's latest judgment is truly 「historical.」 He unequivocally states: 「Gold has begun to replace a portion of U.S. Treasuries as a risk-free asset in many investment portfolios.」 This marks a milestone declaration. For a long time, U.S. Treasuries have been regarded as the 「risk-free asset」 within the global financial system, the anchor for pricing all assets. However, Dalio believes this anchor is beginning to come loose. Why is this the case? Because the definition of 「risk-free」 is being rewritten. Dalio warns us with stark historical data: since 1750, approximately 80% of global currencies have disappeared, with the remaining 20% being severely devalued. The greatest risk lies precisely in debt assets like U.S. Treasuries, which may default or, more likely, undergo a 「hidden default」 (devaluation) through rampant money printing. In contrast, gold's value does not depend on any party's payment commitment. In extreme scenarios where bubbles burst and national credit systems fail, gold serves as a true 「Noah's Ark.」 Thus, when central banks and large institutional investors start reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries and increasing their allocation to gold, it is not merely a tactical adjustment, but a re-vote on 「what constitutes true safety.」

III. Why Gold? Its Irreplaceable 「Uniqueness」 With many tools available in the market for hedging risks, why does Dalio sing the praises of gold alone? Compared to other precious metals (silver, platinum): they lack the profound 「eternal and universal」 status of gold. Silver is heavily influenced by industrial demand with high volatility; platinum has a small market with poor liquidity. They are 「commodities,」 whereas gold is 「currency.」 Compared to inflation-indexed bonds: these are still fundamentally government debt, bearing the same credit risks as regular Treasuries. In times of systemic crisis, they cannot offer the ultimate safety net that gold does. Compared to popular stocks (like AI-driven stocks): high growth comes with high risk and potential bubbles. Dalio acknowledges their potential but warns of their fragility. When everyone rushes towards a trend, risk accumulates in parallel. Gold's distinctive feature is its strong negative correlation with traditional assets. In crises, when stocks and bonds plummet, gold often performs exceptionally. It is not about generating astounding returns during stable times, but rather about saving your portfolio when you need it the most.

IV. Action Guide: How to Allocate 15% to Gold? Confronted with the question, 「Gold prices are high; should I still buy now?」 Dalio's response zeroes in on the core: think from a strategic asset allocation perspective rather than a tactical speculative one. His 15% allocation suggestion is not a short-term timing signal but rather a 「ballast」 strategy based on long-term risk management. How should one implement this? Dalio provides a clever idea: without sacrificing expected returns, use leverage to optimize risk. In simple terms, allocate a portion of your portfolio (like 15%) to low-return, high-safety assets such as gold, then apply moderate leverage to the remaining portion of your portfolio. This way, you retain the overall expected returns while significantly enhancing the portfolio's risk resilience. He makes a bold prediction as well: if global individuals, institutions, and central banks diversify effectively, given gold's extremely limited supply, 「gold prices will have to rise significantly higher.」

Conclusion: A Global Migration Towards 「Certainty」 Dalio's series of assertions reads like a modern financial revelation. It reminds us that in a world built upon layers of debt and credit, finding an ultimate value anchor that does not depend on others will be an inevitable choice for all rational investors. This 15% strategic allocation is not a bet on the future; it reflects reverence for historical laws and serves as the ultimate hedge against uncertainty.