Goldman Sachs Global Macro Forum: Asia Ex-Japan Equities Expected to Lead in 2026, Tech Sector Remains Front-Runner

Stock News
02/11

Economists at Goldman Sachs project global real GDP will achieve robust growth of 2.9% in 2026, exceeding market consensus. This forecast was presented at the firm's recent Global Macro Conference in Hong Kong. Unlike last year's widespread optimism toward U.S. equities, a live poll of investors at this year's forum revealed that over 60% of participants believe Asia ex-Japan equities will deliver the strongest regional performance in 2026. Regarding sectors, the technology sector is still expected to be the leader. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius noted that this cautiously optimistic outlook reflects diminishing headwinds from U.S. tariffs and growth in real incomes. He also projected that U.S. core inflation will decline to 2.1% by the end of 2026, primarily due to fading boosts from tariffs and further decreases in housing and wage inflation. The live investor poll also indicated that, compared to a year ago, participants are more optimistic (48.1%) or hold a similar view (16.4%) about global economic growth in 2026. On the topic of interest rate cuts, Hatzius expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to implement two 25-basis-point cuts this year, in June and September, with the final target rate range settling at 3-3.25%. Andrew Tilton, Chief Asia-Pacific Economist at Goldman Sachs Research, shared his outlook for regional economies. Tilton mentioned that despite tariff shocks, emerging market growth remains resilient, with Emerging Asia performing particularly strongly. He anticipates sound growth trends in several Emerging Asian markets in 2026. Looking at Europe, Jari Stehn, Chief European Economist at Goldman Sachs Research, suggested that economic growth in the region will likely remain challenging in 2026. He forecasts Eurozone real GDP to grow 1.3% year-on-year, reflecting real income growth and reduced fiscal policy drag, but headwinds from intensified export competition with China are increasing. Core inflation is projected to fall to 1.8% by end-2026, aided by lower energy prices, a stronger euro, and potential disinflationary effects from adjustments to Chinese trade routes. Focusing on the Asia-Pacific region, Timothy Moe, Chief Asia-Pacific Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, and his team believe the macro environment is favorable for equity growth in APAC, with valuations expected to see little change. Discussing the impact of artificial intelligence, Moe suggested that due to sustained strong corporate demand for chipmakers, an extended super-cycle is anticipated, and maintaining investments is advised. He also highlighted that the primary risk is any geopolitical or macro shock that could disrupt earnings prospects. Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Equity Strategist, noted that despite a less favorable macro backdrop for European equities, bank stocks have performed exceptionally well, consistently outperforming the U.S. "Magnificent Seven," and expressed continued preference for the financial and defense sectors. He also stated that European equities have seen no fund inflows in recent years, but this trend is showing signs of reversal, and merger and acquisition activity among small and mid-cap companies is expected to increase. Ben Snider, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, forecasts 12% earnings growth for the S&P 500, with earnings growth being the primary driver of U.S. equity returns. Regarding AI-related stock market activity, he believes the real focus has been on companies benefiting from other firms' capital expenditure investments and expects very significant capex investment to continue this year. He anticipates the growth trend will persist and consensus earnings estimates to continue being revised upwards.

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