Hong Kong Stock Market Analysis | Fed Support Boosts Commodities, Logic Behind Real Estate Rally

Stock News
昨天

**Market Analysis** Today's rally across both mainland and Hong Kong markets was unsurprising, as bullish sentiment had already emerged last Friday, bolstered further by Federal Reserve support. A-shares broke records again, with combined trading volume across Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing exchanges surpassing 3 trillion yuan, marking only the second time in A-share history. Multiple listed companies announced plans to invest idle funds in securities, while Hong Kong stocks gapped up 1.94%.

Fed Chairman Powell delivered dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium, stating that downside risks to the employment market are rising, with labor force growth having slowed significantly this year. Tariffs have begun pushing up prices for certain goods, with their impact on CPI now clear, essentially representing a one-time effect. Long-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored, and the Fed won't allow inflation to become a persistent problem. Given that monetary policy remains in restrictive territory, policy adjustments may be necessary.

Powell is set to retire next year, making continued hawkish stance disadvantageous for him. With the US economy in poor condition, if the Fed doesn't act decisively, Powell would bear responsibility for any stock market decline, making dovish commentary logical. Based on these remarks, at least two rate cuts this year appear highly probable.

Under rate cut expectations, the dollar will weaken while commodities strengthen. Combined with AI momentum driving copper demand substantially higher, copper companies show greater elasticity. Today, CMOC (03993), JIANGXI COPPER (00358), and CHINFMINING (01258) all surged over 8%.

In rare earths, new regulations were announced with the "Interim Measures for Total Volume Control Management of Rare Earth Mining and Smelting Separation" being released, establishing national total volume control for rare earth mining and smelting operations. This marks a new phase in national management of this strategic resource, with strict controls addressing rare earth smuggling phenomena. JLMAG (06680) jumped over 14% today.

Real estate received sudden positive news as Shanghai's Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission and five other departments jointly issued the "Notice on Optimizing and Adjusting Municipal Real Estate Policy Measures," covering six adjustments including housing purchase restrictions, provident fund, housing credit, and housing taxation. The new policies take effect August 26, 2025.

Purchase restrictions saw major adjustments: qualified families face no unit limits for purchases outside the outer ring; single adults follow the same purchase restriction policies as residential families; provident fund accounts can pay down payments; commercial loan rates no longer differentiate between first and second homes.

This represents decent policy strength, though core areas remain restricted, similar to Shenzhen and Beijing. Given greater inventory pressure in remote areas, prioritizing these locations makes sense. Essentially, this provides some stimulus for rigid demand but insufficient to change the current situation, as people generally lack purchasing power.

From a market perspective, property stocks all moved today. Shanghai-based developer CHINA JINMAO (00817) rose over 3%, while national major developers performed better: China Vanke, Sunac China, China Overseas Grand Oceans, and Longfor Group all gained over 6%.

The timing is actually the key factor - markets are already front-running expectations. If stocks can rally significantly going forward, residents' non-property income will increase, boosting home-buying enthusiasm. This represents the best debt resolution path for property companies.

China Vanke led today's surge, with the company having released earnings showing positive progress in debt resolution. Through asset disposals and continued funding support from major shareholder Shenzhen Metro Group, Vanke has repaid 24.39 billion yuan in public market debt as scheduled, with no offshore public debt maturing before 2027. With major shareholder backing, various businesses can operate normally. Today's nearly 10% surge positions real estate in a left-side capital accumulation phase, with future outbreaks requiring gradual fundamental improvement, such as sales data recovery. Watch property agent KE Holdings (02423) for sector momentum indicators.

NVIDIA's WeChat official account announced on August 23 the launch of Spectrum-XGS Ethernet. As AI demand develops, data center power and capacity within single facilities face challenges. Traditional commercial Ethernet network infrastructure has limitations including high latency, high jitter, and unpredictable performance for data center expansion.

Spectrum-XGS Ethernet, a new addition to NVIDIA's Spectrum-X Ethernet platform, breaks these limitations by introducing scale-across infrastructure. This technology could combine multiple distributed data centers into a gigawatt-scale AI superfactory. Such networking requires hollow-core optical fiber, with industry leader Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Limited Company (06869) being the sole successful bidder for China Mobile's first commercial hollow-core optical fiber project in July 2025, potentially accelerating commercialization. The actual winning bid was approximately 36,000 yuan per core-kilometer. The stock surged over 26% again today.

The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated: "Firmly resist vicious competition with prices below cost, transitioning from homogeneous low-efficiency competition to high-quality, high-level competition." The photovoltaic industry has been depressed for an extended period, and without strong measures, problems will worsen. Some actions may be forthcoming.

GCL Technology (03800), Xinyi Solar (00968), and Flat Glass Group (06865) all posted varying degrees of gains today, but GCL New Energy (00451) performed even better. The company will announce interim results on August 27, and based on earlier guidance, interim performance is expected to improve. While still showing net losses, the loss margin has narrowed significantly. Today's sudden surge of over 14% may indicate better-than-expected performance direction. Photovoltaic individual stock prices remain generally low, offering good value at current levels.

Dongfeng Motor Group (00489) is preparing for privatization and resumed trading today. The company announced that subsidiary Voyah will list on Hong Kong Stock Exchange through introduction, while Dongfeng Motor Group will simultaneously complete privatization and delisting. According to the announcement, the transaction uses Voyah equity plus cash consideration, with total acquisition price of HK$10.85 per share, including cash consideration of HK$6.68 per share and Voyah equity consideration of HK$4.17 per share. The stock surged over 54% today. The variable factor is Voyah's actual valuation.

NIO (09866), mentioned last Friday, surged over 15% again today, mainly on speculation of better-than-expected orders. NIO President Qin Lihong revealed the day after the new car launch: "NIO doesn't publish order numbers, but calculated hourly, the new ES8's order volume so far exceeds last month's Ledao L90."

August's featured stock WeiMob (02013): Interim results showed revenue of approximately 775.5 million yuan, adjusted revenue of approximately 775.5 million yuan, up 7.8% year-over-year; adjusted net profit of 16.9 million yuan, achieving first turnaround since 2021. Additionally, Chairman Sun Taoyong increased holdings by 4 million shares, raising shareholding to 6.76%. The company maintains close coordination with Tencent's ecosystem, actively embracing WeChat e-commerce opportunities. In 2025, WeiMob added over 300 new WeChat Shop merchants, with monthly GMV of approximately 50 million yuan and monthly growth rate of about 100%. The stock surged over 13% again today.

**Sector Focus** On August 24 evening, the 2025 TMEA Tencent Music Entertainment Awards opened grandly at Galaxy Macau's Arena, with the 16,000-seat venue packed. Over 30 top Chinese music artists including Jolin Tsai, Zhou Shen, Wu Qingfeng, and Wang Sulong performed, repeatedly pushing the atmosphere to climax.

On August 10 evening, Eason Chan's "FEAR and DREAMS World Tour" final show concluded at Galaxy Macau's Arena, with nearly 4 hours of performance and 12 encore songs creating an enthusiastic atmosphere. Concerts not only directly boosted gaming revenue but also drove related consumption in hotels and dining, extending tourist stays. August gaming revenue is expected to exceed expectations again.

Main targets: Sands China (01928), Galaxy Entertainment (00027), Wynn Macau (01128), MGM China (02282), SJM Holdings (00880).

**Individual Stock Analysis** Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388): First-half revenue and profit both hit historical highs, IPO market remains active

HKEX's first-half 2025 revenue and other income reached HK$14.076 billion, up 33% from first-half 2024, with shareholders' profit of HK$8.519 billion, up 39% from first-half 2024. HKEX plans to launch 5-day, 24-hour trading.

Commentary: HKEX achieved record first-half revenue and profit, with higher average daily turnover delivering strong earnings and important strategic progress across multiple businesses. IPO pipeline is robust, with 207 IPO applications as of June 2025, significantly up from 120 in March 2025. Multiple metrics showed explosive growth.

This year, HKEX's securities market average daily turnover exceeded HK$240 billion, up over 17-fold from HK$13 billion in 2000, witnessing continuous growth of Hong Kong markets and investor base over 25 years. HKEX derivatives market growth was even more significant, with year-to-date average daily volume reaching 1.76 million contracts, far exceeding 37,500 contracts in 2000.

Since 2000, listed companies in Hong Kong have grown from 790 to over 2,600, with mainland enterprises listed in Hong Kong accounting for 81% of total market capitalization. HKEX is actively preparing to launch a "Tech Enterprise Express Lane" to facilitate mainland listed technology and biotech companies' Hong Kong listing applications, helping attract more large enterprises to list in Hong Kong for increased listing fee income.

Expanding Southeast Asia and Middle East markets: HKEX will strengthen promotion in ASEAN and Middle East regions, exploring cooperation opportunities including ETF listings, committed to increasing recognized overseas exchanges to facilitate more overseas enterprises' secondary listings in Hong Kong.

The company provides stable shareholder returns. HKEX's IPO market remains active, with over 50 completed listing applications raising nearly $17 billion, currently leading global IPO rankings. Over 230 companies are currently queuing for IPO applications, with fundraising amounts currently ranking first globally.

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