HK Market Analysis | Countermeasures Underway as Gold & Defense Stocks Lead Gains

Stock News
11/19

【Market Overview】 Mainland China's SSE Composite edged up today, though decliners outnumbered gainers with heavyweights propping the index. Hong Kong's market trimmed losses after an intraday rebound, closing 0.38% lower. Geopolitical tensions escalated as Japan reportedly pressured China to recall its consul in Osaka, sparking strong rebuttals from Chinese state media and the Foreign Ministry. In response, China announced a suspension of Japanese seafood imports, triggering a rally in A-share aquaculture stocks. While Hong Kong lacks direct exposure, defense stocks gained traction—particularly shipbuilder CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering (00317), which surged over 9% amid signs of a new shipping supercycle.

【Sector Highlights】 1. **Defense & Shipbuilding**: - CSSC Offshore (00317) rallied on bullish industry data: Secondhand vessel prices surpassed newbuild prices for the fourth time since 2000, historically preceding supercycles. China accounted for 73% of global October new orders (2.13M CGT). - China Ship Leasing (03877) rose nearly 2% on tight supply dynamics.

2. **Gold**: Spot gold rebounded above $2,600/oz amid geopolitical uncertainty and Fed chair speculation, lifting stocks like Zhaojin Mining (01818) and SPDR Gold (03939) (+10%).

3. **Energy & Insurance**: - PetroChina (00857) and Sinopec (00386) climbed over 2%, while insurers like PICC (01339) provided market support.

4. **Lithium**: Carbonate futures broke 100,000 yuan/ton, though Tianqi Lithium (09696) pared gains after exchange fee hikes.

5. **Emerging Tech**: - Hydrogen player REFIRE (02570) soared 30% post-regulatory approval for a private share placement. - AI play Maike Futures (02556) rose 7% as Google launched Gemini 3.

【Global Watch】 EU plans to centralize critical mineral procurement, potentially benefiting CHALCO (02600) and Jiangxi Copper (00358).

【Stock Spotlight: CHALCO (02600)】 The aluminum giant reported record Q3 earnings (Revenue: ¥176.5B, +1.57%; Net Profit: ¥10.87B, +20.65%), leveraging: - Vertical integration (75% alumina self-sufficiency vs industry’s <50%) - Cost leadership (power costs at ¥0.35/kWh vs industry ¥0.50) - 28% revenue from high-end products like solar frame alloys. Its 1.2GW renewable project in Inner Mongolia further solidifies competitiveness.

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