Multiple positive signals are converging, as major Wall Street investment banks collectively expressed bullish views on JD.com on the same day. According to market analysis, Barclays, J.P. Morgan, and HSBC each released research reports on April 14, unanimously optimistic about the improving fundamental trends at JD.com.
The common logic from the three institutions focuses on two main themes: first, the consumer and broader e-commerce environment improved in the first quarter, with JD.com's high-margin businesses, such as daily essentials and platform services, showing stronger-than-expected growth momentum. Second, the trend of narrowing losses in the new food delivery business is becoming clearer quarter-over-quarter. Additionally, regulators have been signaling market participants to return to rational competition, further strengthening the certainty of loss reduction.
Daily essentials and platform services have become the core focus, potentially driving optimization of the revenue structure. In the forward-looking forecasts from major banks for JD.com's first quarter, the re-acceleration of growth in the daily essentials and platform & marketing services segments was repeatedly highlighted. According to Barclays' industry research, the year-over-year growth rates for these two businesses in the fourth quarter of the previous year were 12.1% and 15%, respectively, and may have further accelerated in the first quarter. First-quarter revenue growth for daily essentials is expected to rise from a previous estimate of 12.0% to 12.5%, while platform and marketing services revenue growth is revised up from 13.5% to 15.5%. HSBC similarly projected that daily essentials would maintain 12.5% year-over-year growth in the first quarter, with platform and advertising revenue growing approximately 15% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, home appliances and 3C categories remain a drag. Barclays expects revenue in this segment to still decline about 8% year-over-year in the first quarter, in line with prior expectations, but predicts it could turn to positive growth as early as the third quarter of 2026—when the high base effect from trade-in subsidies gradually fades, aiding a re-acceleration in overall revenue growth in the second half of the year.
Regarding new businesses, the narrowing of losses in the food delivery business is a key reason major banks are raising profit forecasts. J.P. Morgan believes that recent repeated signals from regulators against irrational competition have led to signs of cooling subsidies in the domestic food delivery market. This prompted the bank to narrow its 2026 loss forecast for new businesses from 45 billion yuan to approximately 35 billion yuan (an improvement of about 10 billion yuan compared to market consensus). HSBC expects losses from the food delivery business to narrow significantly from about 36 billion yuan in 2025 to approximately 25 billion yuan in 2026.
In terms of user metrics, HSBC cited QuestMobile data showing that JD.com's monthly active users (MAU) grew 13% year-over-year in the first quarter, faster than the 2%-3% growth of competitors. The daily active user ratio (DAU/MAU) also increased by about 2 percentage points year-over-year to 23%-24%, indicating improved user quality that lays a foundation for platform monetization.
In overseas expansion, institutional language is more cautious, shifting focus from "expansion speed" to "investment pace and controllable losses." Barclays cited management comments stating that investment in JD.com's European business via JoyBuy will proceed "gradually," with short-term focus on user experience, particularly fulfillment experience, rather than business scaling. J.P. Morgan similarly observed that after JoyBuy's launch in Europe in March, customer acquisition spending has been "quite cautious," and expects international business advancement to be more prudent in 2026 compared to flash sales loss reduction. HSBC anticipates that the overseas business will still incur losses in 2026 due to upfront warehouse and delivery investments, with quarterly losses potentially ranging from 1 to 2 billion yuan, fluctuating with order volume.
On valuation, although the three institutions used different methodologies, their conclusions all point to the current stock price offering a significant margin of safety. Barclays, using an EV/EBITDA valuation approach, raised the target multiple from 5x to 6x (based on 2027 expected EV/EBITDA), with a target price of $41; an upside scenario corresponds to a 7x EBITDA multiple and a $48 target; a downside scenario corresponds to 4x and a $27 target. J.P. Morgan, based on a 9x 2027 expected P/E (three-year average), set a target price of $38, implying about 11x 2026 expected P/E, and noted that the current valuation for the core business (excluding all losses from new businesses) is only about 6x, suggesting considerable upside in the most optimistic scenario. HSBC, using a DCF valuation (WACC of 10.6%, terminal growth rate of 3.5%), maintained a $35 target price, viewing the current approximately 9x 2026 expected P/E as attractive, with additional support from a buyback program equivalent to about 5% of market cap (approximately $2 billion, valid until August 2027).