Southwest Securities: Innovative Drugs to See Beta Rally in 2025, Stock Selection Phase Begins in 2026

Stock News
2025/12/31

Southwest Securities released a research report stating that in early 2025, Hong Kong-listed companies successively achieved business development deals; Hong Kong-listed innovative drug stocks led the market's advance. In March, the Government Work Report proposed "improving the drug price formation mechanism, formulating an innovative drug catalog, and supporting the development of innovative drugs and medical devices," which spurred a follow-up rally in A-share innovative drug stocks. By May, with the completion of a BD deal involving a $1.25 billion upfront payment for a PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody, the innovative drug sector entered an accelerated upward trend. As the third quarter concluded, the sector underwent a high-level correction. The firm anticipates that the innovative drug sector will transition from a broad-based rally to a stock-picking phase in 2026. For 2026, Southwest Securities is optimistic about three key themes: the globalization of pharmaceuticals, brain-computer interface technology, and AI healthcare. The main viewpoints of Southwest Securities are as follows: Regarding globalization, the pace of Chinese innovative drugs going global accelerated significantly in 2025. As of December 5th, the number of outbound BD projects had reached 166, an increase of 54 compared to the full year of 2024; upfront payments totaled $6.30 billion, surging over 199% from the 2024 total; and the cumulative deal value reached $141.97 billion, growing more than 136.8% year-over-year. Over 52% of the molecules involved in these deals were in early stages (Phase I clinical trials or pre-clinical) at the time of out-licensing. ADCs and bispecific antibodies remain hot areas for globalization, while novel drugs targeting GLP-1R still hold potential in directions such as long-acting formulations, oral administration, multi-target agonists, and muscle-preserving weight loss. In terms of medical device globalization, in July 2025, the approval of Sinomed's coronary stent via the FDA's PMA pathway significantly boosted market confidence. Future focus will be on the progress of domestic companies achieving PMA registrations for their medical devices in the US market. For brain-computer interfaces, on October 28, 2025, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China's proposal for formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development was officially released. Specifically, the plan explicitly states: 1) Making forward-looking arrangements for future industries, and for the first time, proposes promoting brain-computer interfaces and similar technologies to become new economic growth points. 2) Multiple provinces have successively introduced fee schedules for BCI procedures, with regions like Zhejiang and Hubei already incorporating some items into their medical insurance systems. 3) In the healthcare sector, BCI technology is primarily applicable for conditions such as stroke, quadriplegia, spinal cord injury, hemiplegia, locked-in syndrome, ALS, traumatic brain injury, Parkinson's disease, depression, and sleep disorders. The application of BCI technology will initially concentrate on medical rehabilitation, particularly in helping stroke and spinal cord injury patients regain mobility, with potential future expansion into education, entertainment, and industrial fields. Regarding AI healthcare, in November 2025, five national departments jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting and Standardizing the Application and Development of 'Artificial Intelligence + Healthcare'", which set clear near-term and long-term targets and systematically planned 24 key application scenarios across 8 major directions, including primary care, clinical decision support, traditional Chinese medicine, and drug研发. AI healthcare has now entered a new stage of technological integration and industry restructuring. Continuous attention should be paid to前沿 progress and investment opportunities in key application areas: 1) AI-powered health management; 2) AI healthcare informatization and CDSS for辅助 clinical decision-making; 3) AI medical imaging for辅助 diagnosis; 4) Integration of AI and surgical robots; 5) AI in gene sequencing; 6) AI-driven drug discovery. The recommended portfolio includes Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (600276.SH), BeiGene (688235.SH), Mindray Medical (300760.SZ), United Imaging Healthcare (688271.SH), Shouyao Holdings (688197.SH), Meinian Onehealth Healthcare (002044.SZ), Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical (600867.SH), HUTCHMED (00013), Everest Medicines (01952), Yifan Pharmaceutical (002019.SZ), Meihao Medical (301363.SZ), Tibet Rhodiola Pharmaceutical (600211.SH), Enhua Pharmaceutical (002262.SZ), Changchun High & New Technology Industry (000661.SZ),康辰药业 (603590.SH), Pharmaron (300759.SZ), Asymchem (002821.SZ), and MicroPort Robot (02252). Risk warnings include risks associated with globalization falling short of expectations; risks related to delays in pharmaceutical product研发 and commercialization; uncertainties in healthcare industry policies; and risks of performance falling below expectations.

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