On August 10, gold prices surged over 7% last week, hitting a seven-week high, after the US July non-farm payrolls data unexpectedly turned negative. This slashed expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike and weakened the US dollar. A long position initiated around $4,245 yielded a profit of approximately $100 when it reached $4,350.
The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due Wednesday, is the week's most critical event. It will be followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday and Retail Sales on Friday. This series of data will recalibrate the narrative around potential rate cuts or hikes. If the CPI continues to cool, gold bulls could accelerate. However, if the CPI rebounds, the metal's elevated levels are vulnerable to a wave of profit-taking.
Monday's and Tuesday's trading sessions are expected to be characterized by high-level consolidation, as the market hesitates to make bold moves ahead of Wednesday's key data. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are simmering, not boiling over, providing a floor of support without fueling aggressive buying. The People's Bank of China added 640,000 ounces to its gold reserves in July, marking the 21st consecutive month of purchases and the largest single-month addition in this cycle. Globally, central banks bought 289 metric tons of gold in the second quarter, a 62% increase year-over-year. This long-term institutional buying provides a solid foundation for prices.
Technically, the weekly chart shows a large bullish candlestick, breaking out of a box range and rebuilding a bullish structure. The 4,300 level is the 200-day moving average and a key retest point. The daily RSI is in the 68-72 overbought zone, suggesting a period of consolidation is needed. The upside resistance zone is 4,370-4,385, which was last week's high and is a key pivot. The short-term bull support lies at 4,320-4,300, with stronger support at 4,268-4,273. The medium-term outlook for gold remains bullish, supported by the negative non-farm payrolls, reduced rate hike expectations, and central bank buying. The current consolidation after the sharp rally is a market waiting for the CPI catalyst, not a reversal. The trading strategy is to buy on dips, with short-selling as a secondary option, avoiding chasing breakouts. Positions should be kept light ahead of the CPI.
The recommended intraday trade is to go long at 4,310-4,312, with a stop-loss at 4,299, targeting 4,360-4,370. Key economic data to watch on Monday, August 10, 2026, at 22:00 includes the US July Conference Board Employment Trends Index, and at 23:30, the US 3-Month Bill Auction results.