Tianfeng Securities released a research report indicating that in 2025, a significant reduction in the TC benchmark has lowered mining costs while copper prices surged. Despite copper miners maintaining high profitability at around 60% since 2024, supply growth is decelerating.

Chinese copper firms have expanded into resource-rich regions like Africa and South America through mergers, acquisitions, and joint ventures amid rising costs and resource protectionism. Infrastructure improvements further enhance efficiency, reducing long-term operational costs.

Key insights from Tianfeng Securities: 1. **Slowing Copper Supply Growth in 2025**: Based on Q2 earnings reports and updates, copper production in 2025 is expected to show a net decline, with supply growth revised downward to approximately -0.12%, marking a slowdown from 2024.

2. **High Costs & Cautious Expansion**: New projects face delays due to high initial investments and regulatory hurdles. Elevated production costs, especially for high-cost mines, increase vulnerability to price volatility, potentially leading to output cuts.

3. **Price Support Amid Supply Constraints**: While strong copper prices in 2024–2025 should incentivize higher output in 2025–2026, persistent disruptions may limit growth, with 2026 supply expansion projected at just 2%. Tight supply could sustain price floors.

4. **Chinese Miners’ Global Expansion**: China holds only 4% of global copper reserves but accounts for 8% of production, highlighting resource scarcity. Domestic firms are actively acquiring overseas assets to secure supply.

**Recommended Stocks**: - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) - MMG (01208) - CMOC (603993.SH) - JCHX Mining (603979.SH) - Western Mining (601168.SH)

**Risks**: Sample bias, subjective estimates, trade tensions, operational delays, weaker-than-expected demand, and modeling uncertainties.