Northbound Capital Trends: Net Sell-off of HK$3.521B; Alibaba (BABA-W) Attracts Over HK$1.3B Amid Tongyi Qianwen's ChatGPT Rivalry

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On November 13, the Hong Kong stock market saw a net sell-off of HK$3.521 billion by northbound capital, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect recording a net outflow of HK$2.128 billion and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect a net outflow of HK$1.393 billion. The top net buys were Alibaba-W (BABA-W), Xiaomi-W (XIAOMI-W), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347), while the largest net sell-offs were in the Tracker Fund (02800), Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (02828), and Tencent (00700).

Alibaba-W (BABA-W) received a net inflow of HK$1.374 billion. Reports indicate that Alibaba has secretly launched the "Tongyi Qianwen" project, developing a personal AI assistant app under the same name, positioning it as a direct competitor to ChatGPT. Previously focused on B2B AI solutions via Alibaba Cloud, this move signals Alibaba's entry into the consumer AI market.

Xiaomi-W (XIAOMI-W) attracted a net inflow of HK$779 million. Goldman Sachs highlighted Xiaomi's shortened delivery cycles for its SU7 Pro and SU7 Max models, reflecting strong execution in manufacturing capacity expansion. The bank noted that tax subsidies announced on October 24 underscore Xiaomi's confidence in scaling production, with further progress expected in coming months.

Semiconductor stocks saw northbound inflows, with Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) and SMIC (00981) receiving net buys of HK$86.81 million and HK$76.06 million, respectively. J.P. Morgan's report suggests the AI-driven semiconductor upcycle, far from peaking, will extend through 2027, bolstering Asian tech stocks. The bank forecasts global semiconductor revenue growth of 18% and 11% in 2026 and 2027.

Tencent (00700) faced a net sell-off of HK$875 million despite posting Q3 revenue of RMB192.87 billion (+15% YoY) and operating profit of RMB72.57 billion (+18% YoY). Key drivers included a 16% rise in value-added services (gaming up 22.8%) and a 21% increase in ad revenue (boosted by AI and WeChat’s ecosystem). Fintech and enterprise services grew 10% to RMB58.17 billion.

ETF sell-offs were prominent, with the Tracker Fund (02800) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (02828) seeing net outflows of HK$6.226 billion and HK$2.289 billion, respectively. Analysts caution on short-term market weakness but remain cautiously optimistic about mid-term prospects, citing policy focus on tech innovation and domestic demand.

Other notable moves included a HK$30.25 million net buy for 3SBio (01530), while Innovent Biologics (01801), Ganfeng Lithium (01772), and CNOOC (00883) saw net sell-offs of HK$419 million, HK$261 million, and HK$2.01 million, respectively.

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