Rebar: (Qiu Yuecheng, Practicing Qualification No.: F3046854; Trading Consultation Qualification No.: Z0016941) Yesterday, the rebar futures market fluctuated within a narrow range. As of the day session, the rebar 2701 contract closed at 3,105 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.03% from the previous trading day's closing price, with open interest decreasing by 39,000 lots. Spot prices were stable with some increases, while transaction volume declined slightly. The price of ordinary billet in Qian'an, Tangshan, remained unchanged at 2,980 yuan/ton, the price of Zhongtian rebar in the Hangzhou market rose 20 yuan/ton to 3,180 yuan/ton, and national building materials transaction volume was 102,400 tons. The State Council executive meeting held on September 28 called for stepping up efforts to ensure the implementation of various policies, rolling out a batch of practical and effective incremental policies, and studying and introducing policy measures to stabilize the real estate market and promote employment and income growth. On the 29th, the Ministry of Finance and other departments announced the implementation of an interest subsidy policy for residential home purchase loans starting October 1, and the central bank announced a 0.25 percentage point cut in the interest rate on pledged supplementary lending (PSL) as well as a 500 billion yuan increase in relending quotas for agriculture and small businesses. The strengthening of macroeconomic policy will provide a relatively strong boost to short-term market sentiment. With the National Day holiday approaching, both bulls and bears in the market were cautious, and capital outflow was relatively evident. It is expected that the short-term rebar market will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range.

Iron ore: (Liu Xi, Practicing Qualification No.: F03087689; Trading Consultation Qualification No.: Z0019538) Yesterday, the price of the main iron ore futures contract i2701 fell slightly. As of the day session, it closed at 699 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton or 0.85% from the previous trading day's closing price, with turnover of 203,000 lots and open interest increasing by 8,500 lots. Port spot prices declined, with 60.8% PB fines at Rizhao Port at 663, down 5, and Carajas fines at 838, down 5. According to Mysteel data, during the period from September 21 to September 27, 2026, total iron ore inventories at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil were 11.414 million tons, down 540,000 tons from the previous week, indicating a slight decline in port inventories. At present, iron ore supply and demand remain loose. On the supply side, shipments and arrivals of mainstream mines remain at high levels. On the demand side, steel mill profitability is at a historical low, hot metal output has fallen to 2.357 million tons, and iron ore port inventories continue to accumulate at high levels, still up 26.66 million tons year on year in the latest reading. It is worth noting, however, that over the past two years the iron ore cost curve has shifted up significantly, and rising mining costs and freight rates have provided strong cost support for iron ore prices. It is expected that the short-term iron ore market may still trade in a narrow range.

Coking coal: (Zhang Chunjie, Practicing Qualification No.: F03132960; Trading Consultation Qualification No.: Z0024275) Yesterday, the coking coal market declined. As of the day session, the coking coal 2701 contract closed at 1,448 yuan/ton, down 9.5 yuan/ton or 0.65%, with open interest decreasing by 3,391 lots. On the spot side, the spot price of Jiexiu main coking coal (A<10.5, S<1.3, G>80) was 2,190 yuan/ton, down 20; Mongolian 5# raw coal at the Ganqimaodu port was 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; Mongolian 3# clean coal was 1,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous quotation. Shanxi held a meeting requiring accelerated resumption of production and reaching full capacity, but it takes time for coal mines to move from acceptance and resumption to actual volume recovery, so short-term output is unlikely to rebound quickly. The tight supply pattern in Linfen, Lvliang, and other areas remains unchanged, and some mines have arranged National Day maintenance, keeping output at low levels. Under loss pressure, steel mills have a strong willingness to actively cut production and control output, and hot metal output has fallen from high levels. Expectations of negative feedback in the industrial chain have strengthened, procurement of raw materials remains based on essential needs, resistance to high-priced raw materials is evident, and there is a lack of willingness to actively restock. It is expected that the short-term coking coal market will fluctuate with a weak bias.

Coke: (Zhang Chunjie, Practicing Qualification No.: F03132960; Trading Consultation Qualification No.: Z0024275) Yesterday, the coke market declined. As of the day session, the coke 2701 contract closed at 1,942.5 yuan/ton, down 9.5 yuan/ton or 0.49%, with open interest decreasing by 1,304 lots. On the spot side, the spot price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1,930 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous quotation. The coke spot market has begun its first round of price cuts. Some steel mills in major producing areas such as Tangshan, Tianjin, and Zhuangjiacun reduced wet-quenched coke prices by 100 yuan/ton and dry-quenched coke prices by 110 yuan/ton, effective from 00:00 on October 1, 2026. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises has increased, and average daily coke output has risen for several consecutive weeks. However, constrained by tight supply of high-quality main coking coal, the momentum for coking enterprises to further raise output remains limited, and production is still at a low level for the same period in recent years. Recently, coking coal spot prices have weakened, the online auction failure rate has risen, and coking coal prices have fluctuated downward. Although cost pressure on coking enterprises has eased somewhat, this has to a certain extent weakened the cost support for coke. End-use finished steel consumption has not shown obvious improvement, the steel industry as a whole is in a state of large-scale losses, steel mills strongly resist high-priced raw materials, and procurement is mainly based on stocking up as needed. It is expected that the short-term coke market will fluctuate with a weak bias.

Silicomanganese: (Sun Chengzhen, Practicing Qualification No.: F03099994; Trading Consultation Qualification No.: Z0021057) On Tuesday, silico-manganese futures prices fluctuated lower, with the main contract closing at 5,798 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from the previous day, and open interest in the main contract falling by 17,298 lots to 227,000 lots. In terms of news, the central government's first-ever "mortgage interest subsidy" in fiscal history landed before the holiday, boosting market sentiment. Fundamentally, on the cost side, port manganese ore prices held steady, South32's new round of overseas quotations rose from the previous period, the converted landed cost of semi-carbonate ore is already inverted, and Australian ore is close to the break-even line. On the supply side, weekly silico-manganese output has increased for several consecutive weeks, but due to poor current immediate production profits, weekly silico-manganese output is expected to weaken later. On the demand side, end-use demand is still relatively weak, and the weekly silico-manganese demand from sample steel mills remains at a low level. On the inventory side, although inventories of sample silico-manganese enterprises fell from the previous period, they are still relatively high year on year. Overall, news has boosted market sentiment to some extent, but the driving force from fundamentals is limited. It is expected that silico-manganese futures prices will still fluctuate, and with the long holiday approaching, attention should be paid to position risk.

Ferrosilicon: (Sun Chengzhen, Practicing Qualification No.: F03099994; Trading Consultation Qualification No.: Z0021057) On Tuesday, ferrosilicon futures prices fluctuated downward, with the main contract closing at 5,948 yuan/ton, down 0.97% from the previous day, and open interest in the main contract falling by 26,600 lots to 229,300 lots. In terms of news, the central government's first-ever "mortgage interest subsidy" in fiscal history landed before the holiday, boosting market sentiment. From the supply and demand perspective, weekly ferrosilicon output continued to decline from the previous period. Last week, weekly ferrosilicon output was 112,800 tons, and operating rates of ferrosilicon producers in Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia, and Qinghai all declined. On the demand side, end-use demand remains relatively weak, and peak-season demand release is limited. Last week, weekly ferrosilicon demand from sample steel mills was 17,533 tons, down 2.89% from the previous period, the lowest value for the same period in recent years. On the inventory side, inventories of sample ferrosilicon enterprises fell from the previous period but increased year on year. Overall, news has boosted market sentiment somewhat, but fundamentals are not sufficient to form a resonance with it. It is expected that ferrosilicon futures prices will mainly fluctuate, and with the long holiday approaching, attention should be paid to position risk.

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