International gold prices have experienced a technical rebound following a sustained sell-off, as market risk sentiment shifts amid signs of easing tensions in the Middle East. Spot gold (XAU/USD) rose near $4,240 during Friday's Asian session before paring gains, having previously touched a near six-month low. Some short positions were closed for profits, while a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields provided short-term support for the precious metal.

U.S. President Trump stated on Thursday that a planned military action against Iran had been called off, adding that negotiations with Tehran had been submitted to and approved by Iran's highest leadership. This news bolstered market hopes that the U.S. and Iran might be nearing a ceasefire agreement. However, Iran subsequently indicated that a final conclusion on the relevant agreement had not yet been reached, meaning uncertainty in the Middle East persists, and gold retains some support as a traditional safe-haven asset.

As optimism grew over a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, investor risk appetite improved, leading to a retreat in U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index. Since gold is priced in dollars, a weaker greenback reduces the cost for holders of other currencies to purchase gold, thereby boosting demand. Market analysts note that gold's recent sharp decline pushed technical indicators into oversold territory, and the current short-term rebound could represent either a potential bottoming phase or merely a corrective move driven by short-covering.

Nevertheless, gold still faces significant headwinds. International oil prices have remained relatively elevated, and rising energy costs could reignite global inflationary pressures, reinforcing expectations that major central banks will maintain high-interest-rate policies. Since gold itself does not generate yield, the opportunity cost of holding it increases in a high-rate environment, which may limit the extent of any future price recovery.

Market focus is shifting to next week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, the first policy session under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, but with inflation risks not fully subsided, the future path of rates remains highly uncertain. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors currently assign about a 67% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, an expectation that continues to exert medium-term pressure on non-yielding assets like gold.

From a daily chart perspective, gold found support near $4,100 after a series of declines and has initiated a corrective rebound from its six-month low. The current price remains below its major moving averages, indicating the medium-term downtrend is not yet reversed. While market momentum has improved, the strength of the rebound requires further confirmation. Immediate resistance is seen in the $4,260 to $4,300 zone; a decisive break above this area could open a path for gold to rebound further towards $4,350. Support levels to watch are at $4,150 and $4,100. A renewed drop below $4,100 could see bears test lower levels once more.

On the 4-hour chart, gold has formed a short-term low-rebound structure, with technical indicators gradually recovering from oversold levels, suggesting selling pressure has eased somewhat. However, the price remains within the confines of the prior downtrend channel, indicating a full reversal signal is not yet in place. If bulls can sustain a hold above $4,200, the short-term corrective move may continue. If the rebound falters and the price falls back below $4,150, it could reopen the door for further declines. The market will continue to monitor the U.S. dollar's trajectory, Treasury yield movements, and the latest developments in the Middle East.

In summary, recent gold price action has been influenced by a mix of geopolitical de-escalation, dollar fluctuations, and monetary policy expectations. Trump's cancellation of military action plans has helped restore some risk sentiment, pushing gold higher from recent lows. However, inflation risks stemming from elevated oil prices persist, and the potential for the Fed to maintain or even tighten its high-rate policy caps gold's upside. In the near term, gold may maintain a low-level consolidation and corrective pattern. Investors should closely watch progress in Middle East negotiations, the outcome of the Fed meeting, and shifts in U.S. inflation expectations to gauge whether gold can break free from its current corrective trend.