Guotai Haitong's research highlights motorcycles as vital transportation across India and Southeast Asia, while e-bikes gain significant traction in Europe and Japan. Two-wheelers, prized for convenience in short-distance travel, see major Chinese manufacturers accelerating global deployments. The overseas electric two-wheeler sector remains nascent, with industry pioneers Yadea Group Holdings (01585) and Aima Technology Group (603529.SH) rapidly establishing international factories and distribution networks.
Carbon neutrality targets drive the transition from fuel-powered to electric models. Motorcycles contribute substantially to pollution, compounded by higher fuel costs versus electricity—key factors accelerating electrification. Southeast Asia's motorcycle-dependent markets now witness sweeping policy shifts: Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City implement motorcycle restrictions; Thailand enforces CO2-based motorcycle taxation since 2020; Singapore targets full fossil-fuel vehicle phase-out by 2040. Vietnam's commitment to carbon neutrality by 2050 gained emphasis during COP26, spurring electric infrastructure development.
Electric two-wheelers offer clear advantages: significantly lower emissions, reduced noise pollution, diverse energy sources, and lower ownership costs compared to combustion engines. Premium models deliver sophisticated smart features. Though performance gaps persist at extreme levels, urban riding experiences between electric and fuel-powered models converge noticeably. Core component synergies with electric vehicles promise cost reductions as EV battery technology advances, benefiting two-wheelers.
India and Southeast Asia mirror China's 2000-2010 development phase—rapid urbanization amid inadequate road infrastructure creates ideal conditions for electric two-wheeler adoption. With average motorcycle prices at $4,010 and scooters at $1,310 across Southeast Asia versus $54,000 for electric cars, affordability aligns with regional purchasing power. China's export dominance in bicycles (89% export rate in 2018) and motorcycles (54%, 33%, and 35% export rates 2019-2021) signals potential for electric two-wheelers, where current exports represent merely 5.2% of production.
Domestic leaders possess formidable advantages: mature supply chains and entrenched distribution networks cultivated through years of market dominance. Their accelerated global expansion capitalizes on strategic foresight, operational agility, and channel expertise.
Potential risks include geopolitical tensions and evolving local regulations.