BlackRock Says CPI Data Could Prove Even More Critical Following Strong Jobs Report

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BlackRock Inc.'s Jeff Rosenberg stated that the surprisingly strong US jobs growth in August underscores the significance of next week's consumer price index report, as Federal Reserve policymakers weigh the possibility of another interest rate hike.

"This basically affirms what we were already aware of regarding the labor market and shifts the attention and responsibility squarely back onto inflation," Rosenberg said during a Bloomberg Television interview on Friday. "The key question for a potential Fed hike in September truly hinges on whether inflation is climbing or not declining quickly enough."

If the September 11th CPI release continues to demonstrate progress on the inflation front, "I believe they will hold steady," said Rosenberg, who serves as a portfolio manager at BlackRock.

Friday's payroll figures strengthened the prevailing sentiment on Wall Street that the Federal Open Market Committee could raise rates this month. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, August nonfarm payrolls surged by 162,000, which beat every projection in a Bloomberg survey, and the job losses previously reported for July were revised to show gains. Yields on rate-sensitive two-year Treasuries climbed, while traders increased their wagers on a rate increase at the FOMC's September 15-16 meeting.

"The jobs report really only had the capacity to diminish the odds of a hike if it had been exceptionally weak," Rosenberg explained. Friday's release was "far more about next week and far more about the inflation figures."

Rosenberg noted that wage inflation is no longer the primary menace it seemed to be following the disruptions of the Covid era, characterizing the current environment as a "low-hire, low-fire" job market.

He stated that the genuine inflationary threat originates from the energy price pass-through, as headline inflation seeps into core inflation. The jobs report landed just hours after automotive group AAA reported that average diesel prices at US filling stations hit a record $5.85 a gallon.

Even if the Fed does decide to raise rates by 25 basis points, Wall Street's enthusiasm for stocks and credit is likely to persist, according to Rosenberg.

"The equity market is far more focused on the numerator than the denominator — signifying it's much more about earnings and earnings growth, along with the remarkable historical strength of the technology and AI boom," he said. Given solid credit quality and tight spreads, the debt markets would probably also withstand a single quarter-point increment, he added.

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