The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Friday fell short of expectations, extending the dollar's decline and pushing gold and U.S. stocks to sharp weekly gains. In July, the U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs, well below the expected gain of 80,000, while May and June figures were revised down by a combined 103,000. Although the unemployment rate dipped from 4.2% to 4.1%, the participation rate fell to 61.4%, indicating more people are leaving the workforce. The cooling labor market signals have reduced the probability of a September rate hike to 43% (from around 70% two weeks ago), though some analysts argue that AI-driven productivity gains may have diminished the nonfarm report's relevance. Consequently, this week's U.S. July CPI data could carry greater weight in shaping rate expectations.

Gold surged over 7% last week, breaking above $4300 and recording its largest weekly gain since January. Notably, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 21 consecutive months, with monthly purchases rising steadily, while its U.S. Treasury holdings have fallen to the lowest level since 2008.

This week's focus includes the U.S. CPI, the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision, and trends in tech stocks and gold. The U.S. July CPI, due at 8:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, is expected to edge down to 3.4% from 3.5%, with core CPI forecast to drop to 2.5% from 2.6%. Lower-than-expected inflation could further dampen rate hike expectations, pressuring the dollar but boosting gold, silver, and tech stocks. Conversely, a surprise uptick in inflation could revive September rate hike odds, potentially halting the dollar's decline near 99.40. Other key U.S. data this week include the PPI on Thursday and retail sales on Friday.

The Reserve Bank of Australia delivers its rate decision at 12:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday. With inflation and unemployment in Australia remaining elevated, the market widely expects the central bank to keep rates unchanged, with the probability of a rate hike this year below 50%. Although the RBA is less hawkish than in the first half of the year, the Australian dollar has benefited from the greenback's pullback, closing higher for five of the past six weeks and rising above 0.7000 to a fresh June high. If the RBA avoids dovish commentary this week, the Aussie's uptrend may continue.

Earnings season has been robust, with about 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported. Second-quarter earnings growth is projected at a staggering 50%, the highest since 2021, far exceeding the 23% estimate at the end of June and the 27% in the prior quarter. The strong results have temporarily eased concerns about excessive AI spending, driving the three major U.S. indexes to their best weekly performance since April. The S&P 500 closed at a record high, while the Nasdaq 100 is within 3% of its all-time peak. This week, earnings from CoreWeave, Cisco, and Applied Materials will test market confidence, while Hong Kong-listed names like Tencent and JD.com also report. The next major market catalyst could be Nvidia's results on August 26.

On the technical front, gold has broken above a six-month downtrend line and crossed $4300, with weekly and daily charts suggesting sustained upside momentum. Given the dollar's weakness on fading rate hike expectations, dip-buying opportunities remain attractive. In the near term, gold is facing pressure early Monday as it corrects technical indicators. The $4300/20 area, serving as the launch point after Friday's nonfarm data, offers some support. If it holds, gold could challenge the key $4380 level, the last barrier before a breakout. If it falters, a pullback may extend to the $4200/30 zone.

The Nasdaq 100 has staged a strong daily recovery, surging nearly 10% from its late-July low. On the 4-hour chart, it has validated an uptrend after a retest of 29100 and is now challenging 29850. A decisive break above this level could open the door to 30000 and beyond. On the downside, a break below 29100/200 would likely weaken the bullish momentum.