Forecast market platform Kalshi has formally submitted an application to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to expand its business from cryptocurrencies into traditional precious metals, with plans to launch perpetual futures contracts linked to gold, silver, and platinum. This move signals rising demand for trading traditional assets, as the perpetual futures derivative instrument, once confined to the crypto market, is accelerating its penetration into a broader financial landscape. The interplay between regulatory approval and trading mechanics is a central variable in this expansion. Following standard procedure, the CFTC will decide whether to approve the application within 45 days. Compared to some event contracts that exchanges can self-certify, new products like perpetual futures face more stringent scrutiny. Regarding trading hours, Kalshi plans to implement a schedule of five days a week, 24 hours a day, to align with the rhythm of traditional precious metals markets, rather than operating round-the-clock like crypto perpetual contracts. Kalshi's Chief Risk Officer, Udesh Jha, revealed the company is still evaluating the possibility of further extending trading hours. It is noteworthy that geopolitical conflicts have intensified demand for trading traditional assets. For instance, during the Iran conflict, some retail investors used related products to trade oil prices to circumvent traditional futures market closures. Simultaneously, the competitive landscape of the industry is being reshaped. Emerging platforms, including Hyperliquid, have already launched contracts linked to real-world assets like gold and crude oil, prompting traditional giants to accelerate their responses.

CME Group Inc (CME) plans to officially launch 24/7 trading services for its existing 1-ounce gold futures contracts this week (July 26th) in response to market changes. On a macro level, the gold market is in a critical adjustment phase. Since hitting a historic high at the end of January this year, the gold price has experienced a maximum decline of approximately 25%, primarily influenced by market expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates, suppressing the appeal of non-yielding assets. However, several institutions believe the current gold price shows signs of being oversold, and a rebound opportunity is forming. U.S. research firm Zweig-DiMenna points out that the recent increase in gold purchases by the Chinese central bank may indicate the market is finding a bottom. Data shows that in the first half of 2026, officially announced gold reserves cumulatively increased by 40 tonnes. As of the end of June, gold reserves reached 75.44 million ounces (approximately 2,346.45 tonnes), marking the central bank's 20th consecutive month of increasing its holdings. The 15-tonne increase in June alone was the largest monthly purchase since October 2023. In contrast, the Chinese central bank's total purchase volume for the entire year of 2025 was only about $2 billion. Zweig-DiMenna analysis suggests the current gold price is about 10% below its 200-day moving average. Historically, similar situations in 1999 and 2022 were followed by significant rebounds. However, cases from 1981 and 2013 also show that prices can fall further after being oversold, meaning the market's direction still depends on the macro environment. Morgan Stanley is also bullish on gold's prospects, with its commodities team forecasting a year-end price target of $4,450 per ounce, based primarily on continued central bank purchases globally. Despite institutional optimism, current central bank buying demand is partially offset by outflows from gold ETFs. Last year, ETF investors contributed about one-fifth of gold demand, but investor enthusiasm has waned due to easing geopolitical risks, changing interest rate expectations, and the gold price correction. The key to gold's future trajectory remains Federal Reserve policy. If inflation continues to cool and the Fed holds rates steady or even cuts them in the future, falling real interest rates could rekindle gold's appeal and drive ETF inflows. In the view of institutions, the recent adjustment in gold does not imply a breakdown of its long-term thesis. With global central banks increasing gold reserves, persistent market demand for safe-haven assets, and the continuous emergence of new trading instruments, the gold market may be brewing its next major move. Kalshi's foray into precious metals perpetual futures also demonstrates that traditional asset trading is evolving towards more flexible and higher-frequency directions.