The National Bureau of Statistics will release China's economic performance report for the first quarter of this year today. The data, including GDP growth rate, industrial output, consumption, and investment figures, will be officially announced. As the first year of the new five-year plan period, can China's economy achieve a strong start? What are the notable highlights in the first-quarter economic performance?
Huang Hanquan, Director of the Academy of Macroeconomic Research at the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that based on various economic indicators from both supply and demand sides, China's economic growth rate in the first quarter is expected to reach around 5%, indicating a solid beginning. Wei Qijia, a researcher at the National Information Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, added that the economy continues to operate steadily within a reasonable range, with the first quarter likely to show a promising start.
Experts believe that despite fluctuations in the international environment, recent high-frequency data and leading indicators suggest a strong performance in both supply and demand during the first quarter, driven by proactive macroeconomic policies. In particular, robust foreign trade and a rebound in infrastructure investment have provided solid support for economic growth.
Huang Hanquan noted that infrastructure investment maintained double-digit growth in the first two months, reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing fixed-asset investment and major projects. Wei Qijia emphasized that the better-than-expected export performance in the first quarter highlights the resilience of China's industrial and supply chains, as well as the growing influence of its products and brands in the global market. The integration of technological and industrial innovation has fostered new growth drivers in the industrial sector, especially in high-end equipment manufacturing and intelligent manufacturing, which are experiencing strong demand both domestically and internationally.
Furthermore, experts pointed out that recent high-frequency data indicate continued growth in high-tech manufacturing and service consumption, reflecting the ongoing cultivation of new economic drivers. Innovations in areas such as artificial intelligence are accelerating the accumulation of resources, playing a key role in developing new quality productive forces.
Gao Yuning, Vice Dean of the School of Public Policy and Management at Tsinghua University, highlighted the rapid development of new quality productive forces, including embodied intelligence and artificial intelligence, as a major bright spot in the modern industrial system. These sectors have injected strong momentum into the first-quarter economy. One notable data point is that the token usage of China's open-source large language models has recently surpassed that of the United States. Industries previously categorized as strategic emerging sectors, such as electric vehicles, have now evolved into pillar industries, further strengthening the economy's overall dynamism and resilience.