Black Swan Strikes: Surge in Put Options Volume Raises Market Concerns

Deep News
09/24

Let's turn to the crude oil market for a closer look.

According to recent media reports, since last week, Saudi Arabia has sold nearly 100 million barrels of crude oil to Asian buyers, helping to avert an impending supply shortage in the region. The barrels are set to be transported through the Strait of Hormuz to buyers, including refining companies in India, Japan, and South Korea. After the East-West Pipeline was attacked on September 10 and has yet to fully resume operations, Saudi Aramco has taken charge of logistics, delivering the crude oil all the way to Asian customers.

Data released by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) shows that on Tuesday, Brent crude put option volume reached approximately 764,000 contracts, setting a new historical record. On that day, over 110,000 December 70/69 dollar put spreads, 40,000 November 93/92 dollar put spreads, and 38,500 February 70/69 dollar put spreads were traded, with these three categories combined accounting for more than half of the total daily volume.

Industry insiders note that large volumes concentrated in narrow put spreads, which are sometimes also used to hedge over-the-counter binary options, so not all of this volume necessarily represents pure directional bearish bets. However, looking at the market trading structure, funds are clearly reducing their previous bets on further oil price increases.

Recently, the crude oil market has been flooded with mixed news. On the 22nd, Saudi Arabia resumed partial operations of its East-West Pipeline. This pipeline connects the eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and is a crucial energy route for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, with a designed transport capacity of up to about 7 million barrels per day. Reports indicate that the pipeline has now resumed operations, but throughput remains at a low level, and full recovery may take some time.

On the 23rd, data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that U.S. gasoline inventories fell by 1.686 million barrels last week, against market expectations of an increase of 95,000 barrels; crude oil inventories rose by 2.969 million barrels, versus expectations of a decrease of 641,000 barrels; refinery utilization rates fell by 2.8 percentage points; daily crude oil imports increased by 369,000 barrels; and distillate inventories decreased by 428,000 barrels, compared to expectations of a decline of 633,000 barrels.

On the same day, Iranian President Pezeshkian stated during his speech at the UN General Assembly general debate that Iran will "never bow its head or kneel in submission," and called on all countries to work together to achieve peace. Pezeshkian emphasized that Iran does not seek nuclear weapons and will not accept restrictions on its civilian nuclear program. He reiterated Iran's willingness to maintain friendly relations with neighboring countries, stressing that regional issues must be resolved by regional countries within the region and cannot be left to external forces to interfere.

In terms of price action, after five consecutive declines, Brent crude oil futures rebounded significantly on Wednesday. Analysts have pointed out that with the Strait of Hormuz not fully open, the supply gap remains, making oil prices overall prone to rising rather than falling, though upside momentum also faces pressure. In the short term, the risk of repeated geopolitical conflicts cannot be ignored, and market participants should continue to track the progress of crude export recovery in the Gulf region and the status of U.S.-Iran negotiations.

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